Mega Evolution ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $55.08.
9 packs plus $13.99 in promo value produce $34.33 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−62%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $89.41.
Expected Loss
−$55.08
The average opening result after paying $89.41 sealed.
Open Average
$34.33
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$21.97
Expected range $1.26-$3.26 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.26
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$2.26 × 9 packs = $20.34
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$20.34 + $13.99 promos = $34.33
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$34.33 × 0.64 = $21.97
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $34.33 ÷ $89.41 = 38.4% • Cash-out: $21.97 ÷ $89.41 = 24.6%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.26 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 10 | $84.87 | 0.99% | $0.84 | $7.56 | 37.2% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 22 | $5.88 | 11.10% | $0.65 | $5.85 | 28.8% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 22 | $5.32 | 8.30% | $0.44 | $3.96 | 19.5% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 2 | $246.81 | 0.08% | $0.20 | $1.80 | 8.8% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.67 | 20.00% | $0.13 | $1.17 | 5.8% |
| Total | $2.26 | $20.34 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Mega Evolution, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
#178/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$188.55
+$1.71 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
#179/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$168.15
+$1.53 EV
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
#177/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$136.71
+$1.26 EV
Bulbasaur - 133/132
#133/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$24.13
+$1.08 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
#188/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$265.09
+$0.99 EV
Ivysaur - 134/132
#134/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$20.29
+$0.90 EV
Lillie's Determination - 169/132
#169/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$23.69
+$0.81 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
#187/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$228.52
+$0.81 EV
Vulpix - 138/132
#138/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$14.53
+$0.63 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 160/132
#160/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$15.92
+$0.54 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Mega-Evolution-Pull-Rates/40cbeedc-21ce-473b-aef1-74e3969d9f91/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-mega-evolution-pull-rates/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/12/16/mega-evolution-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($89.41) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($89.41) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($13.99) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Evolution Booster Box | $298.46 | $81.36 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box | $293.43 | $81.36 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution ETB | $89.41 | $34.33 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | $229.79 | $110.96 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Bundle | $49.65 | $13.56 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution 3 Pack Blister | $30.64 | $7.28 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Single Pack Blister | $11.69 | $2.51 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box | $49.90 | $21.63 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Heroes Mini Tin | $17.67 | $4.52 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Sleeved Booster | $8.96 | $2.26 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Art Bundle | $34.15 | $9.04 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Pack | $7.02 | $2.26 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $641.21 | $316.90 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $293.86 | $145.12 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $149.97 | $71.16 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $158.04 | $65.50 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $148.22 | $60.25 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $481.05 | $189.76 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $89.43 | $35.21 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $187.52 | $73.05 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |