Mega Evolution Sleeved Booster
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $6.79.
1 packs produce $2.33 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−74%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $9.12.
Expected Loss
−$6.79
The average opening result after paying $9.12 sealed.
Open Average
$2.33
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$1.49
Expected range $1.34-$3.32 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.33
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$2.33 × 1 packs = $2.33
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$2.33 = $2.33
No promo value applied for this product.
$2.33 × 0.64 = $1.49
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $2.33 ÷ $9.12 = 25.6% • Cash-out: $1.49 ÷ $9.12 = 16.3%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.33 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 10 | $87.40 | 0.99% | $0.87 | $0.87 | 37.3% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 22 | $5.92 | 11.10% | $0.66 | $0.66 | 28.3% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 22 | $5.27 | 8.30% | $0.44 | $0.44 | 18.9% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 2 | $247.87 | 0.08% | $0.20 | $0.20 | 8.6% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.78 | 20.00% | $0.16 | $0.16 | 6.9% |
| Total | $2.33 | $2.33 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Mega Evolution, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
#178/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$191.81
+$0.19 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
#179/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$170.95
+$0.17 EV
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
#177/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$156.36
+$0.15 EV
Bulbasaur - 133/132
#133/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$22.42
+$0.11 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
#188/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$266.35
+$0.11 EV
Ivysaur - 134/132
#134/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$20.42
+$0.10 EV
Lillie's Determination - 169/132
#169/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$23.32
+$0.09 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
#187/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$229.39
+$0.09 EV
Vulpix - 138/132
#138/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$15.01
+$0.08 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 160/132
#160/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$15.97
+$0.06 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Mega-Evolution-Pull-Rates/40cbeedc-21ce-473b-aef1-74e3969d9f91/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-mega-evolution-pull-rates/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/12/16/mega-evolution-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $4.49. Current sealed price ($9.12) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($9.12) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Evolution Booster Box | $300.83 | $83.88 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box | $295.10 | $83.88 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution ETB | $91.08 | $34.04 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | $230.40 | $110.29 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Bundle | $52.20 | $13.98 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution 3 Pack Blister | $31.13 | $7.49 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Single Pack Blister | $11.70 | $2.58 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box | $50.27 | $21.90 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Heroes Mini Tin | $17.64 | $4.66 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Sleeved Booster | $9.12 | $2.33 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Art Bundle | $34.32 | $9.32 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Pack | $7.11 | $2.33 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Packs Across Sets
See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Pack | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascended Heroes Booster Pack | Ascended Heroes | $12.20 | $7.10 | −42% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | Black Bolt | $9.86 | $4.72 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Booster Pack | White Flare | $9.17 | $4.33 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Booster Pack | Perfect Order | $6.71 | $2.89 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Pack | Shrouded Fable | $8.94 | $3.77 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order 3 Pack Blister | Perfect Order | $22.77 | $9.17 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister | Phantasmal Flames | $9.87 | $3.97 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack | Phantasmal Flames | $9.45 | $3.72 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |