Mega Evolution Art Bundle
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $28.74.
4 packs produce $10.12 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−74%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $38.86.
Expected Loss
−$28.74
The average opening result after paying $38.86 sealed.
Open Average
$10.12
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$6.48
Expected range $1.37-$3.69 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.53
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$2.53 × 4 packs = $10.12
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$10.12 = $10.12
No promo value applied for this product.
$10.12 × 0.64 = $6.48
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $10.12 ÷ $38.86 = 26.0% • Cash-out: $6.48 ÷ $38.86 = 16.7%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.53 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 10 | $98.86 | 0.99% | $0.98 | $3.92 | 38.7% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 22 | $6.91 | 11.10% | $0.77 | $3.08 | 30.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 22 | $5.45 | 8.30% | $0.45 | $1.80 | 17.8% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 2 | $236.50 | 0.08% | $0.19 | $0.76 | 7.5% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.71 | 20.00% | $0.14 | $0.56 | 5.5% |
| Total | $2.53 | $10.12 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Mega Evolution, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
#179/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$238.61
+$0.96 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
#178/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$193.05
+$0.76 EV
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
#177/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$164.39
+$0.64 EV
Bulbasaur - 133/132
#133/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$25.43
+$0.52 EV
Ivysaur - 134/132
#134/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$22.22
+$0.44 EV
Marshadow - 146/132
#146/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$20.89
+$0.44 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
#188/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$240.00
+$0.40 EV
Lillie's Determination - 169/132
#169/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$25.09
+$0.36 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
#187/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$233.00
+$0.36 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 160/132
#160/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$14.98
+$0.24 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Mega-Evolution-Pull-Rates/40cbeedc-21ce-473b-aef1-74e3969d9f91/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-mega-evolution-pull-rates/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/12/16/mega-evolution-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($38.86) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($38.86) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Evolution Booster Box | $328.07 | $91.08 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box | $317.61 | $91.08 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution ETB | $106.07 | $34.71 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | $278.10 | $117.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Bundle | $59.04 | $15.18 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution 3 Pack Blister | $34.20 | $8.09 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Single Pack Blister | $12.28 | $2.78 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box | $55.87 | $22.25 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Heroes Mini Tin | $18.24 | $5.06 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Sleeved Booster | $9.26 | $2.53 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Art Bundle | $38.86 | $10.12 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Pack | $7.76 | $2.53 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Bundles Across Sets
See how this bundle stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Bundle | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Booster Bundle | Chaos Rising | $45.11 | $22.56 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Bundle | Black Bolt | $73.57 | $36.60 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Booster Bundle | White Flare | $70.93 | $33.18 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack Art Bundle | Chaos Rising | $33.45 | $15.04 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Temporal Forces Art Bundle | Temporal Forces | $32.50 | $14.48 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle | Shrouded Fable | $60.91 | $26.34 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Booster Bundle | Perfect Order | $43.15 | $16.14 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Art Bundle | Perfect Order | $29.84 | $10.76 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |