Mega Evolution Single Pack Blister
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $9.33.
1 packs plus $0.25 in promo value produce $2.72 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−77%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $12.05.
Expected Loss
−$9.33
The average opening result after paying $12.05 sealed.
Open Average
$2.72
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$1.74
Expected range $1.35-$3.59 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.47
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$2.47 × 1 packs = $2.47
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$2.47 + $0.25 promos = $2.72
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$2.72 × 0.64 = $1.74
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $2.72 ÷ $12.05 = 22.6% • Cash-out: $1.74 ÷ $12.05 = 14.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.47 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 10 | $97.40 | 0.99% | $0.96 | $0.96 | 38.9% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 22 | $6.80 | 11.10% | $0.75 | $0.75 | 30.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 22 | $5.20 | 8.30% | $0.43 | $0.43 | 17.4% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 2 | $236.02 | 0.08% | $0.19 | $0.19 | 7.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.70 | 20.00% | $0.14 | $0.14 | 5.7% |
| Total | $2.47 | $2.47 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Mega Evolution, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
#179/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$230.27
+$0.23 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
#178/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$193.14
+$0.19 EV
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
#177/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$159.14
+$0.16 EV
Bulbasaur - 133/132
#133/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$24.67
+$0.12 EV
Ivysaur - 134/132
#134/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$22.33
+$0.11 EV
Marshadow - 146/132
#146/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$19.92
+$0.10 EV
Lillie's Determination - 169/132
#169/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$22.80
+$0.09 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
#187/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$236.09
+$0.09 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
#188/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$235.95
+$0.09 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 160/132
#160/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$14.42
+$0.05 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Mega-Evolution-Pull-Rates/40cbeedc-21ce-473b-aef1-74e3969d9f91/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-mega-evolution-pull-rates/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/12/16/mega-evolution-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $5.49. Current sealed price ($12.05) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($12.05) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($0.25) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Evolution Booster Box | $333.79 | $88.92 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box | $313.47 | $88.92 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution ETB | $103.04 | $34.31 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Bundle | $58.25 | $14.82 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution 3 Pack Blister | $33.46 | $7.91 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Single Pack Blister | $12.05 | $2.72 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box | $55.49 | $21.86 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Heroes Mini Tin | $18.04 | $4.94 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Sleeved Booster | $9.26 | $2.47 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Art Bundle | $38.78 | $9.88 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Pack | $7.08 | $2.47 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Packs Across Sets
See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Pack | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Flygon Line | Chaos Rising | $20.20 | $11.57 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Pawmot Line | Chaos Rising | $21.66 | $11.57 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack | Chaos Rising | $6.97 | $3.69 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster | Chaos Rising | $7.79 | $3.69 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Booster Pack | Ascended Heroes | $16.13 | $7.62 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising 3 Pack Blister | Chaos Rising | $25.91 | $11.57 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Booster Pack | Perfect Order | $6.26 | $2.70 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Sleeved Booster | Perfect Order | $6.40 | $2.70 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |