How Rip or Flip Works
We calculate the expected value of every sealed Pokemon TCG product so you can make informed decisions.
What is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) tells you the average dollar amount you would receive by opening a sealed Pokemon TCG product and selling every card inside. It is calculated by multiplying each card's current market price by the probability of pulling it, then summing across all rarity tiers and packs in the product.
Market EV is the raw expected value based on current TCGPlayer market prices. This represents what your pulls are worth on paper before any selling costs.
Cash-Out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to Market EV, accounting for marketplace fees (~13%), shipping costs, and the gap between listed market price and actual sale price. This is a realistic estimate of what you would pocket after selling.
Return % compares Market EV to the sealed product price. Above 100% means the expected singles value exceeds the sealed cost.
Our Methodology
We calculate the expected value of every sealed product by multiplying each card's current market price by its probability of being pulled, then summing across all rarity tiers.
Our verdicts are based on the Return % of each product:
- Above 110% — "Rip It" — the math favors opening
- 90% to 110% — "Hold" — it could go either way
- Below 90% — "Keep Sealed" — you're better off not opening
Data Sources
- Singles and sealed prices — TCGPlayer via TCGCSV, updated daily
- Pull rates — Community research from 8,000+ pack openings (CardChill, Reddit, YouTube)
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is expected value (EV) in Pokemon TCG?
- Expected value (EV) is the average dollar amount you would get from opening a sealed product, calculated by multiplying each card's market price by its probability of being pulled, then summing across all rarity tiers. If the EV exceeds the sealed price, opening is mathematically favorable.
- How are pull rates calculated?
- Pull rates are sourced from community data aggregated across 8,000+ pack openings from sources like CardChill, Reddit, and YouTube. We calculate the probability of pulling each rarity tier per pack and update our confidence rating based on sample size.
- What is the Cash-Out EV?
- Cash-Out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to the Market EV to account for selling fees (TCGPlayer/eBay fees ~13%), shipping costs, and the gap between market price and actual sale price. This represents a realistic estimate of what you would actually pocket after selling all pulled cards.
- How often are prices updated?
- Prices are refreshed daily from TCGPlayer via TCGCSV. Expected values are recalculated after each price update.