Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $33.63.
4 packs plus $11.98 in promo value produce $21.86 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−61%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $55.49.
Expected Loss
−$33.63
The average opening result after paying $55.49 sealed.
Open Average
$21.86
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$13.99
Expected range $1.35-$3.59 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.47
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$2.47 × 4 packs = $9.88
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$9.88 + $11.98 promos = $21.86
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$21.86 × 0.64 = $13.99
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $21.86 ÷ $55.49 = 39.4% • Cash-out: $13.99 ÷ $55.49 = 25.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.47 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 10 | $97.40 | 0.99% | $0.96 | $3.84 | 38.9% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 22 | $6.80 | 11.10% | $0.75 | $3.00 | 30.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 22 | $5.20 | 8.30% | $0.43 | $1.72 | 17.4% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 2 | $236.02 | 0.08% | $0.19 | $0.76 | 7.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.70 | 20.00% | $0.14 | $0.56 | 5.7% |
| Total | $2.47 | $9.88 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Mega Evolution, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
#179/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$230.27
+$0.92 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
#178/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$193.14
+$0.76 EV
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
#177/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$159.14
+$0.64 EV
Bulbasaur - 133/132
#133/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$24.67
+$0.48 EV
Ivysaur - 134/132
#134/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$22.33
+$0.44 EV
Marshadow - 146/132
#146/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$19.92
+$0.40 EV
Lillie's Determination - 169/132
#169/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$22.80
+$0.36 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
#187/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$236.09
+$0.36 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
#188/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$235.95
+$0.36 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 160/132
#160/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$14.42
+$0.20 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Mega-Evolution-Pull-Rates/40cbeedc-21ce-473b-aef1-74e3969d9f91/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-mega-evolution-pull-rates/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/12/16/mega-evolution-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($55.49) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($55.49) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($11.98) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Evolution Booster Box | $333.79 | $88.92 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box | $313.47 | $88.92 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution ETB | $103.04 | $34.31 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Bundle | $58.25 | $14.82 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution 3 Pack Blister | $33.46 | $7.91 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Single Pack Blister | $12.05 | $2.72 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box | $55.49 | $21.86 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Heroes Mini Tin | $18.04 | $4.94 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Sleeved Booster | $9.26 | $2.47 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Art Bundle | $38.78 | $9.88 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Pack | $7.08 | $2.47 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |