Chaos Rising ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $54.77.
9 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $34.48 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−61%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $89.25.
Expected Loss
−$54.77
The average opening result after paying $89.25 sealed.
Open Average
$34.48
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$22.07
Expected range $1.97-$5.47 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Daily sealed tracking started. Chart appears after two refreshes.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.72
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$3.72 × 9 packs = $33.48
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$33.48 + $1.00 promos = $34.48
Promo value uses static estimate.
$34.48 × 0.64 = $22.07
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $34.48 ÷ $89.25 = 38.6% • Cash-out: $22.07 ÷ $89.25 = 24.7%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.72 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 6 | $122.64 | 1.11% | $1.36 | $12.24 | 36.6% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 11 | $11.55 | 11.10% | $1.28 | $11.52 | 34.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 18 | $6.98 | 8.33% | $0.58 | $5.22 | 15.6% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 1 | $329.01 | 0.09% | $0.30 | $2.70 | 8.1% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.00 | 20.00% | $0.20 | $1.80 | 5.4% |
| Total | $3.72 | $33.48 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Chaos Rising, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Greninja ex - 116/086
#116/086 · SIR
1 in 541 packs
$420.79
+$7.02 EV
Mega Greninja ex - 122/086
#122/086 · MHR
1 in 1099 packs
$329.01
+$2.70 EV
Froakie - 088/086
#088/086 · IR
1 in 99 packs
$23.63
+$2.16 EV
Frogadier - 089/086
#089/086 · IR
1 in 99 packs
$20.00
+$1.80 EV
Xerneas - 091/086
#091/086 · IR
1 in 99 packs
$19.91
+$1.80 EV
Cinccino ex - 119/086
#119/086 · SIR
1 in 541 packs
$91.31
+$1.53 EV
Mega Dragalge ex - 118/086
#118/086 · SIR
1 in 541 packs
$75.29
+$1.26 EV
Mega Greninja ex - 100/086
#100/086 · UR
1 in 216 packs
$26.30
+$1.08 EV
Mega Greninja ex - 022/086
#022/086 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$4.00
+$0.72 EV
Special Red Card - 113/086
#113/086 · UR
1 in 216 packs
$12.25
+$0.54 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (Community pull-rate infographic (5000+ packs sample) — Mega Evolution Chaos Rising). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($89.25) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($89.25) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on static estimate.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Booster Box | $241.12 | $133.92 | −44% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | $89.25 | $34.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising PC ETB | $204.23 | $42.92 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Bundle | $47.22 | $22.32 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box | $52.98 | $15.88 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising 3 Pack Blister | $24.53 | $11.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister | $10.50 | $3.97 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Pawmot Line | $21.03 | $11.66 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Flygon Line | $21.09 | $11.66 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster | $7.86 | $3.72 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack Art Bundle | $39.63 | $14.88 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack | $6.91 | $3.72 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.80 | $154.19 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $701.57 | $360.65 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $177.33 | $79.16 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $170.75 | $74.79 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $274.65 | $116.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $163.61 | $68.19 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt ETB | Black Bolt | $130.29 | $53.95 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved PC ETB | Paldea Evolved | $554.81 | $229.36 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |