Mega Heroes Mini Tin
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $13.10.
2 packs produce $4.94 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−73%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $18.04.
Expected Loss
−$13.10
The average opening result after paying $18.04 sealed.
Open Average
$4.94
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$3.16
Expected range $1.35-$3.59 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.47
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$2.47 × 2 packs = $4.94
This product contains 2 booster packs.
$4.94 = $4.94
No promo value applied for this product.
$4.94 × 0.64 = $3.16
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $4.94 ÷ $18.04 = 27.4% • Cash-out: $3.16 ÷ $18.04 = 17.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.47 EV per pack for this 2-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/2pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 10 | $97.40 | 0.99% | $0.96 | $1.92 | 38.9% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 22 | $6.80 | 11.10% | $0.75 | $1.50 | 30.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 22 | $5.20 | 8.30% | $0.43 | $0.86 | 17.4% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 2 | $236.02 | 0.08% | $0.19 | $0.38 | 7.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.70 | 20.00% | $0.14 | $0.28 | 5.7% |
| Total | $2.47 | $4.94 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Mega Evolution, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
#179/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$230.27
+$0.46 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
#178/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$193.14
+$0.38 EV
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
#177/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$159.14
+$0.32 EV
Bulbasaur - 133/132
#133/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$24.67
+$0.24 EV
Ivysaur - 134/132
#134/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$22.33
+$0.22 EV
Marshadow - 146/132
#146/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$19.92
+$0.20 EV
Lillie's Determination - 169/132
#169/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$22.80
+$0.18 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
#187/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$236.09
+$0.18 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
#188/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$235.95
+$0.18 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 160/132
#160/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$14.42
+$0.10 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Mega-Evolution-Pull-Rates/40cbeedc-21ce-473b-aef1-74e3969d9f91/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-mega-evolution-pull-rates/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/12/16/mega-evolution-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $9.99. Current sealed price ($18.04) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($18.04) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Evolution Booster Box | $333.79 | $88.92 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box | $313.47 | $88.92 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution ETB | $103.04 | $34.31 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Bundle | $58.25 | $14.82 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution 3 Pack Blister | $33.46 | $7.91 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Single Pack Blister | $12.05 | $2.72 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box | $55.49 | $21.86 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Heroes Mini Tin | $18.04 | $4.94 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Sleeved Booster | $9.26 | $2.47 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Art Bundle | $38.78 | $9.88 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Pack | $7.08 | $2.47 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Tins Across Sets
See how this tin stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Tin | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascended Heroes Mini Tin | Ascended Heroes | $27.54 | $15.24 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Mini Tin | Black Bolt | $21.22 | $11.68 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Mini Tin | Pokemon 151 | $47.51 | $21.22 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin | Shrouded Fable | $19.93 | $8.66 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Charizard Tin (Y) | Multi-Set Products | $39.34 | $13.86 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Charizard Tin (X) | Multi-Set Products | $41.46 | $13.86 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin | Pokemon GO | $28.20 | $8.54 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tin | Paldean Fates | $113.52 | $33.65 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |