Rip or Flip
Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box

Price Snapshot

Current Market

$38.58

MSRP

$21.99

Spread: +$16.59 (75%) above MSRP

Buy on TCGPlayer →
KEEP SEALEDAstral Radiance4 packs+ $9.86 promos

Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box

Average opening value trails the buy-in by $18.36.

4 packs plus $9.86 in promo value produce $20.22 of average market value.

Return vs Market

−48%

Compared with today's sealed market price of $38.58.

Expected Loss

−$18.36

The average opening result after paying $38.58 sealed.

Open Average

$20.22

Average market value from packs and included promos.

Cash-out EV

$12.94

Expected range $0.00-$8.75 per pack.

Prices just now · EV just now · Medium confidence

Price History

Recent sealed price movement for this product.

Sealed History

Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.

How the EV is Calculated

Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.

01

EV per booster pack = $2.59

Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 615 pack openings.

02

$2.59 × 4 packs = $10.36

This product contains 4 booster packs.

03

$10.36 + $9.86 promos = $20.22

Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.

04

$20.22 × 0.64 = $12.94

Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.

05

Market: $20.22 ÷ $38.58 = 52.4%Cash-out: $12.94 ÷ $38.58 = 33.5%

Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.

EV by Rarity Tier

Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.59 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.

RarityCardsAvg ValuePull RateEV/PackEV/4pk% of Total
Ultra Rare(UR)58$9.5023.90%$2.27$9.0887.6%
Secret Rare(SR)27$6.732.44%$0.16$0.646.2%
Holo Rare(H)20$0.3525.53%$0.09$0.363.5%
Radiant Rare(RR)3$1.474.88%$0.07$0.282.7%
Total$2.59$10.36100%

Promo Cards

Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.

$9.86 total promo EV

Top 10 Cards You Could Pull

The most valuable cards in Astral Radiance, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.

Assumptions

Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.

Expand assumptions
  • Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
  • Pull rates are community-sourced from 615 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/astral-radiance-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/05/15/astral-radiance-pull-rates-are-surprisingly-good-in-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
  • MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($38.58) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
  • Sealed price ($38.58) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
  • Promo value ($9.86) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
  • Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
  • EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.

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Other Products in This Set

ProductPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Astral Radiance Booster Box$386.76$93.24−76%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance ETB$107.66$21.72−80%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance PC ETB$176.21$27.90−84%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance 3 Pack Blister$33.33$8.27−75%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box$38.58$20.22−48%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance Sleeved Booster$10.60$2.59−76%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance Booster Pack$9.29$2.59−72%KEEP SEALED

Compare Collections Across Sets

See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.

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