Lost Origin ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $173.70.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $54.76 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−76%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $228.46.
Expected Loss
−$173.70
The average opening result after paying $228.46 sealed.
Open Average
$54.76
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$35.05
Expected range $0.00-$36.42 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $6.72
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 718 pack openings.
$6.72 × 8 packs = $53.76
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$53.76 + $1.00 promos = $54.76
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$54.76 × 0.64 = $35.05
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $54.76 ÷ $228.46 = 24.0% • Cash-out: $35.05 ÷ $228.46 = 15.3%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $6.72 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 44 | $26.74 | 23.54% | $6.29 | $50.32 | 93.6% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 21 | $6.98 | 3.20% | $0.22 | $1.76 | 3.3% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 22 | $0.64 | 26.46% | $0.17 | $1.36 | 2.5% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $0.93 | 4.04% | $0.04 | $0.32 | 0.6% |
| Total | $6.72 | $53.76 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Lost Origin, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Giratina V (Alternate Full Art)
#186/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$827.70
+$35.44 EV
Aerodactyl V (Alternate Full Art)
#180/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$211.51
+$9.04 EV
Rotom V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$30.54
+$1.28 EV
Snorlax
#143/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$3.86
+$0.40 EV
Gengar
#066/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$3.71
+$0.32 EV
Giratina VSTAR (201) (Secret)
#201/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$26.64
+$0.32 EV
Giratina VSTAR (212) (Secret)
#212/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$18.20
+$0.24 EV
Radiant Gardevoir
#069/196 · RR
1 in 74 packs
$1.38
+$0.16 EV
Aerodactyl VSTAR (Secret)
#199/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$14.22
+$0.16 EV
Spectrier
#081/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$0.46
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 718 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/lost-origin-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($228.46) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($228.46) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Origin Booster Box | $779.03 | $241.92 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin ETB | $228.46 | $54.76 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin PC ETB | $341.32 | $69.20 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Bundle | $173.43 | $40.32 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin 3 Pack Blister | $83.00 | $20.66 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Build & Battle Box | $74.05 | $29.91 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Sleeved Booster | $79.84 | $6.72 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Pack | $16.31 | $6.72 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |