Rip or Flip
Lost Origin Sleeved Booster

Price Snapshot

Current Market

$81.34

MSRP

$4.49

Spread: +$76.85 (1712%) above MSRP

Buy on TCGPlayer →
KEEP SEALEDLost Origin1 pack

Lost Origin Sleeved Booster

Average opening value trails the buy-in by $74.56.

1 packs produce $6.78 of average market value at current prices.

Return vs Market

−92%

Compared with today's sealed market price of $81.34.

Expected Loss

−$74.56

The average opening result after paying $81.34 sealed.

Open Average

$6.78

Average market value from packs and included promos.

Cash-out EV

$4.34

Expected range $0.00-$36.52 per pack.

Prices just now · EV just now · Medium confidence

Price History

Recent sealed price movement for this product.

Sealed History

Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.

How the EV is Calculated

Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.

01

EV per booster pack = $6.78

Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 718 pack openings.

02

$6.78 × 1 packs = $6.78

This product contains 1 booster pack.

03

$6.78 = $6.78

No promo value applied for this product.

04

$6.78 × 0.64 = $4.34

Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.

05

Market: $6.78 ÷ $81.34 = 8.3%Cash-out: $4.34 ÷ $81.34 = 5.3%

Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.

EV by Rarity Tier

Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $6.78 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.

RarityCardsAvg ValuePull RateEV/PackEV/1pk% of Total
Ultra Rare(UR)44$26.9223.54%$6.34$6.3493.5%
Secret Rare(SR)21$7.053.20%$0.23$0.233.4%
Holo Rare(H)22$0.6426.46%$0.17$0.172.5%
Radiant Rare(RR)3$1.064.04%$0.04$0.040.6%
Total$6.78$6.78100%

Top 10 Cards You Could Pull

The most valuable cards in Lost Origin, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.

Assumptions

Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.

Expand assumptions
  • Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
  • Pull rates are community-sourced from 718 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/lost-origin-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg). Your results will vary.
  • MSRP is $4.49. Current sealed price ($81.34) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
  • Sealed price ($81.34) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
  • Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
  • EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.

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Other Products in This Set

ProductPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Lost Origin Booster Box$779.63$244.08−69%KEEP SEALED
Lost Origin ETB$231.62$55.24−76%KEEP SEALED
Lost Origin PC ETB$354.24$69.80−80%KEEP SEALED
Lost Origin Booster Bundle$173.43$40.68−77%KEEP SEALED
Lost Origin 3 Pack Blister$83.00$20.84−75%KEEP SEALED
Lost Origin Build & Battle Box$74.05$30.24−59%KEEP SEALED
Lost Origin Sleeved Booster$81.34$6.78−92%KEEP SEALED
Lost Origin Booster Pack$16.70$6.78−59%KEEP SEALED

Compare Packs Across Sets

See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.

PackSetPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Flygon LineChaos Rising$20.21$11.78−42%KEEP SEALED
Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Pawmot LineChaos Rising$20.95$11.78−44%KEEP SEALED
Ascended Heroes Booster PackAscended Heroes$14.27$7.67−46%KEEP SEALED
Chaos Rising Booster PackChaos Rising$7.32$3.76−49%KEEP SEALED
Chaos Rising Sleeved BoosterChaos Rising$7.82$3.76−52%KEEP SEALED
Black Bolt Booster PackBlack Bolt$13.55$6.10−55%KEEP SEALED
Chaos Rising 3 Pack BlisterChaos Rising$26.55$11.78−56%KEEP SEALED
Perfect Order Booster PackPerfect Order$6.14$2.69−56%KEEP SEALED
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