Lost Origin Booster Pack
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $9.59.
1 packs produce $6.72 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−59%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $16.31.
Expected Loss
−$9.59
The average opening result after paying $16.31 sealed.
Open Average
$6.72
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$4.30
Expected range $0.00-$36.42 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $6.72
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 718 pack openings.
$6.72 × 1 packs = $6.72
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$6.72 = $6.72
No promo value applied for this product.
$6.72 × 0.64 = $4.30
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $6.72 ÷ $16.31 = 41.2% • Cash-out: $4.30 ÷ $16.31 = 26.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $6.72 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 44 | $26.74 | 23.54% | $6.29 | $6.29 | 93.6% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 21 | $6.98 | 3.20% | $0.22 | $0.22 | 3.3% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 22 | $0.64 | 26.46% | $0.17 | $0.17 | 2.5% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $0.93 | 4.04% | $0.04 | $0.04 | 0.6% |
| Total | $6.72 | $6.72 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Lost Origin, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Giratina V (Alternate Full Art)
#186/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$827.70
+$4.43 EV
Aerodactyl V (Alternate Full Art)
#180/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$211.51
+$1.13 EV
Rotom V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$30.54
+$0.16 EV
Snorlax
#143/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$3.86
+$0.05 EV
Gengar
#066/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$3.71
+$0.04 EV
Giratina VSTAR (201) (Secret)
#201/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$26.64
+$0.04 EV
Giratina VSTAR (212) (Secret)
#212/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$18.20
+$0.03 EV
Radiant Gardevoir
#069/196 · RR
1 in 74 packs
$1.38
+$0.02 EV
Aerodactyl VSTAR (Secret)
#199/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$14.22
+$0.02 EV
Spectrier
#081/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$0.46
+$0.01 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 718 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/lost-origin-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $4.49. Current sealed price ($16.31) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($16.31) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Origin Booster Box | $779.03 | $241.92 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin ETB | $228.46 | $54.76 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin PC ETB | $341.32 | $69.20 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Bundle | $173.43 | $40.32 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin 3 Pack Blister | $83.00 | $20.66 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Build & Battle Box | $74.05 | $29.91 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Sleeved Booster | $79.84 | $6.72 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Pack | $16.31 | $6.72 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Packs Across Sets
See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Pack | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Flygon Line | Chaos Rising | $20.20 | $11.57 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Pawmot Line | Chaos Rising | $21.66 | $11.57 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack | Chaos Rising | $6.97 | $3.69 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster | Chaos Rising | $7.79 | $3.69 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Booster Pack | Ascended Heroes | $16.13 | $7.62 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising 3 Pack Blister | Chaos Rising | $25.91 | $11.57 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Booster Pack | Perfect Order | $6.26 | $2.70 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Sleeved Booster | Perfect Order | $6.40 | $2.70 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |