Lost Origin Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $44.24.
4 packs plus $2.92 in promo value produce $25.44 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−63%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $69.68.
Expected Loss
−$44.24
The average opening result after paying $69.68 sealed.
Open Average
$25.44
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$16.28
Expected range $0.00-$29.77 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $5.63
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 718 pack openings.
$5.63 × 4 packs = $22.52
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$22.52 + $2.92 promos = $25.44
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$25.44 × 0.64 = $16.28
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $25.44 ÷ $69.68 = 36.5% • Cash-out: $16.28 ÷ $69.68 = 23.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $5.63 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 44 | $22.25 | 23.54% | $5.24 | $20.96 | 93.1% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 21 | $6.46 | 3.20% | $0.21 | $0.84 | 3.7% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 22 | $0.51 | 26.46% | $0.14 | $0.56 | 2.5% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $0.90 | 4.04% | $0.04 | $0.16 | 0.7% |
| Total | $5.63 | $22.52 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Lost Origin, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Giratina V (Alternate Full Art)
#186/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$670.86
+$14.36 EV
Aerodactyl V (Alternate Full Art)
#180/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$181.19
+$3.88 EV
Rotom V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$28.56
+$0.60 EV
Giratina VSTAR (201) (Secret)
#201/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$24.81
+$0.16 EV
Gengar
#066/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$2.55
+$0.12 EV
Snorlax
#143/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$2.31
+$0.12 EV
Radiant Gardevoir
#069/196 · RR
1 in 74 packs
$1.22
+$0.08 EV
Aerodactyl VSTAR (Secret)
#199/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$14.94
+$0.08 EV
Giratina VSTAR (212) (Secret)
#212/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$14.78
+$0.08 EV
Spectrier
#081/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$0.44
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 718 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/lost-origin-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($69.68) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($69.68) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.92) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Origin Booster Box | $718.29 | $202.68 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin ETB | $181.14 | $46.04 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin PC ETB | $296.36 | $58.30 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Bundle | $140.00 | $33.78 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin 3 Pack Blister | $90.57 | $17.39 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Build & Battle Box | $69.68 | $25.44 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Sleeved Booster | $73.25 | $5.63 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Pack | $14.72 | $5.63 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | Black Bolt | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |