Lost Origin Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $44.14.
4 packs plus $3.03 in promo value produce $29.91 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−60%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $74.05.
Expected Loss
−$44.14
The average opening result after paying $74.05 sealed.
Open Average
$29.91
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$19.14
Expected range $0.00-$36.42 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $6.72
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 718 pack openings.
$6.72 × 4 packs = $26.88
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$26.88 + $3.03 promos = $29.91
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$29.91 × 0.64 = $19.14
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $29.91 ÷ $74.05 = 40.4% • Cash-out: $19.14 ÷ $74.05 = 25.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $6.72 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 44 | $26.74 | 23.54% | $6.29 | $25.16 | 93.6% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 21 | $6.98 | 3.20% | $0.22 | $0.88 | 3.3% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 22 | $0.64 | 26.46% | $0.17 | $0.68 | 2.5% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $0.93 | 4.04% | $0.04 | $0.16 | 0.6% |
| Total | $6.72 | $26.88 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Lost Origin, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Giratina V (Alternate Full Art)
#186/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$827.70
+$17.72 EV
Aerodactyl V (Alternate Full Art)
#180/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$211.51
+$4.52 EV
Rotom V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$30.54
+$0.64 EV
Snorlax
#143/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$3.86
+$0.20 EV
Gengar
#066/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$3.71
+$0.16 EV
Giratina VSTAR (201) (Secret)
#201/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$26.64
+$0.16 EV
Giratina VSTAR (212) (Secret)
#212/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$18.20
+$0.12 EV
Radiant Gardevoir
#069/196 · RR
1 in 74 packs
$1.38
+$0.08 EV
Aerodactyl VSTAR (Secret)
#199/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$14.22
+$0.08 EV
Spectrier
#081/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$0.46
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 718 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/lost-origin-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($74.05) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($74.05) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($3.03) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Origin Booster Box | $779.03 | $241.92 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin ETB | $228.46 | $54.76 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin PC ETB | $341.32 | $69.20 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Bundle | $173.43 | $40.32 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin 3 Pack Blister | $83.00 | $20.66 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Build & Battle Box | $74.05 | $29.91 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Sleeved Booster | $79.84 | $6.72 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Pack | $16.31 | $6.72 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |