Twilight Masquerade ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $78.65.
9 packs plus $1.48 in promo value produce $28.93 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−73%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $107.58.
Expected Loss
−$78.65
The average opening result after paying $107.58 sealed.
Open Average
$28.93
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$18.52
Expected range $0.87-$5.23 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.05
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$3.05 × 9 packs = $27.45
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$27.45 + $1.48 promos = $28.93
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$28.93 × 0.64 = $18.52
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $28.93 ÷ $107.58 = 26.9% • Cash-out: $18.52 ÷ $107.58 = 17.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.05 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 21 | $16.72 | 7.70% | $1.29 | $11.61 | 42.3% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $77.20 | 1.20% | $0.93 | $8.37 | 30.5% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $4.50 | 6.60% | $0.30 | $2.70 | 9.8% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 6 | $4.92 | 5.10% | $0.25 | $2.25 | 8.2% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 14 | $1.31 | 16.90% | $0.22 | $1.98 | 7.2% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $8.15 | 0.68% | $0.06 | $0.54 | 2.0% |
| Total | $3.05 | $27.45 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Twilight Masquerade, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Greninja ex - 214/167
#214/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$373.66
+$3.69 EV
Eevee - 188/167
#188/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$96.75
+$3.15 EV
Chansey - 187/167
#187/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$63.69
+$2.07 EV
Perrin - 220/167
#220/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$184.54
+$1.80 EV
Hisuian Growlithe - 181/167
#181/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$34.49
+$1.17 EV
Unfair Stamp
#165/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$15.12
+$1.17 EV
Carmine - 217/167
#217/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$76.57
+$0.72 EV
Secret Box
#163/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$8.78
+$0.63 EV
Greninja ex - 106/167
#106/167 · RR
1 in 83 packs
$4.92
+$0.54 EV
Greninja ex - 198/167
#198/167 · UR
1 in 318 packs
$18.75
+$0.54 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Twilight-Masquerade-Pull-Rates, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/18/twilight-masquerade-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($107.58) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($107.58) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.48) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Box | $362.35 | $109.80 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade ETB | $107.58 | $28.93 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade PC ETB | $180.97 | $58.30 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Bundle | $69.80 | $18.30 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade 3 Pack Blister | $36.02 | $9.65 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Single Pack Blister | $11.07 | $3.30 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Build & Battle Box | $57.22 | $14.63 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Sleeved Booster | $9.58 | $3.05 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Art Bundle | $36.92 | $12.20 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Pack | $8.51 | $3.05 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |