Twilight Masquerade Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $42.59.
4 packs plus $2.43 in promo value produce $14.63 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−74%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $57.22.
Expected Loss
−$42.59
The average opening result after paying $57.22 sealed.
Open Average
$14.63
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$9.36
Expected range $0.87-$5.23 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.05
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$3.05 × 4 packs = $12.20
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$12.20 + $2.43 promos = $14.63
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$14.63 × 0.64 = $9.36
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $14.63 ÷ $57.22 = 25.6% • Cash-out: $9.36 ÷ $57.22 = 16.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.05 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 21 | $16.72 | 7.70% | $1.29 | $5.16 | 42.3% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $77.20 | 1.20% | $0.93 | $3.72 | 30.5% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $4.50 | 6.60% | $0.30 | $1.20 | 9.8% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 6 | $4.92 | 5.10% | $0.25 | $1.00 | 8.2% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 14 | $1.31 | 16.90% | $0.22 | $0.88 | 7.2% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $8.15 | 0.68% | $0.06 | $0.24 | 2.0% |
| Total | $3.05 | $12.20 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Twilight Masquerade, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Greninja ex - 214/167
#214/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$373.66
+$1.64 EV
Eevee - 188/167
#188/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$96.75
+$1.40 EV
Chansey - 187/167
#187/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$63.69
+$0.92 EV
Perrin - 220/167
#220/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$184.54
+$0.80 EV
Hisuian Growlithe - 181/167
#181/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$34.49
+$0.52 EV
Unfair Stamp
#165/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$15.12
+$0.52 EV
Carmine - 217/167
#217/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$76.57
+$0.32 EV
Secret Box
#163/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$8.78
+$0.28 EV
Greninja ex - 106/167
#106/167 · RR
1 in 83 packs
$4.92
+$0.24 EV
Greninja ex - 198/167
#198/167 · UR
1 in 318 packs
$18.75
+$0.24 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Twilight-Masquerade-Pull-Rates, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/18/twilight-masquerade-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($57.22) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($57.22) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.43) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Box | $362.35 | $109.80 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade ETB | $107.58 | $28.93 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade PC ETB | $180.97 | $58.30 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Bundle | $69.80 | $18.30 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade 3 Pack Blister | $36.02 | $9.65 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Single Pack Blister | $11.07 | $3.30 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Build & Battle Box | $57.22 | $14.63 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Sleeved Booster | $9.58 | $3.05 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Art Bundle | $36.92 | $12.20 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Pack | $8.51 | $3.05 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |