Twilight Masquerade Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $36.61.
4 packs plus $2.19 in promo value produce $12.91 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−74%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $49.52.
Expected Loss
−$36.61
The average opening result after paying $49.52 sealed.
Open Average
$12.91
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$8.26
Expected range $0.70-$4.66 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.68
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.68 × 4 packs = $10.72
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$10.72 + $2.19 promos = $12.91
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$12.91 × 0.64 = $8.26
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $12.91 ÷ $49.52 = 26.1% • Cash-out: $8.26 ÷ $49.52 = 16.7%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.68 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 21 | $13.92 | 7.70% | $1.07 | $4.28 | 39.9% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $71.75 | 1.20% | $0.86 | $3.44 | 32.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $4.13 | 6.60% | $0.27 | $1.08 | 10.1% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 6 | $4.94 | 5.10% | $0.25 | $1.00 | 9.3% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 14 | $1.08 | 16.90% | $0.18 | $0.72 | 6.7% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $7.28 | 0.68% | $0.05 | $0.20 | 1.9% |
| Total | $2.68 | $10.72 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Twilight Masquerade, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Greninja ex - 214/167
#214/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$362.58
+$1.60 EV
Eevee - 188/167
#188/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$88.16
+$1.28 EV
Chansey - 187/167
#187/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$49.16
+$0.72 EV
Perrin - 220/167
#220/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$164.00
+$0.72 EV
Unfair Stamp
#165/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$17.54
+$0.60 EV
Hisuian Growlithe - 181/167
#181/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$24.76
+$0.36 EV
Secret Box
#163/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$9.10
+$0.32 EV
Carmine - 217/167
#217/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$63.41
+$0.28 EV
Teal Mask Ogerpon ex - 025/167
#025/167 · RR
1 in 83 packs
$3.92
+$0.20 EV
Dragapult ex - 200/167
#200/167 · UR
1 in 318 packs
$14.41
+$0.20 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Twilight-Masquerade-Pull-Rates, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/18/twilight-masquerade-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($49.52) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($49.52) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.19) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Box | $337.27 | $96.48 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade ETB | $86.08 | $25.49 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade PC ETB | $179.55 | $56.31 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Bundle | $60.10 | $16.08 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade 3 Pack Blister | $33.30 | $8.54 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Single Pack Blister | $11.45 | $2.93 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Build & Battle Box | $49.52 | $12.91 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Sleeved Booster | $8.94 | $2.68 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Art Bundle | $34.05 | $10.72 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Pack | $7.67 | $2.68 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | Black Bolt | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |