Twilight Masquerade Booster Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $240.79.
36 packs produce $96.48 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−71%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $337.27.
Expected Loss
−$240.79
The average opening result after paying $337.27 sealed.
Open Average
$96.48
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$61.75
Expected range $0.70-$4.66 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.68
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.68 × 36 packs = $96.48
This product contains 36 booster packs.
$96.48 = $96.48
No promo value applied for this product.
$96.48 × 0.64 = $61.75
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $96.48 ÷ $337.27 = 28.6% • Cash-out: $61.75 ÷ $337.27 = 18.3%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.68 EV per pack for this 36-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/36pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 21 | $13.92 | 7.70% | $1.07 | $38.52 | 39.9% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $71.75 | 1.20% | $0.86 | $30.96 | 32.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $4.13 | 6.60% | $0.27 | $9.72 | 10.1% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 6 | $4.94 | 5.10% | $0.25 | $9.00 | 9.3% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 14 | $1.08 | 16.90% | $0.18 | $6.48 | 6.7% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $7.28 | 0.68% | $0.05 | $1.80 | 1.9% |
| Total | $2.68 | $96.48 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Twilight Masquerade, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Greninja ex - 214/167
#214/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$362.58
+$14.40 EV
Eevee - 188/167
#188/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$88.16
+$11.52 EV
Chansey - 187/167
#187/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$49.16
+$6.48 EV
Perrin - 220/167
#220/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$164.00
+$6.48 EV
Unfair Stamp
#165/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$17.54
+$5.40 EV
Hisuian Growlithe - 181/167
#181/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$24.76
+$3.24 EV
Secret Box
#163/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$9.10
+$2.88 EV
Carmine - 217/167
#217/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$63.41
+$2.52 EV
Teal Mask Ogerpon ex - 025/167
#025/167 · RR
1 in 83 packs
$3.92
+$1.80 EV
Dragapult ex - 200/167
#200/167 · UR
1 in 318 packs
$14.41
+$1.80 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Twilight-Masquerade-Pull-Rates, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/18/twilight-masquerade-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $161.64. Current sealed price ($337.27) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($337.27) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Box | $337.27 | $96.48 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade ETB | $86.08 | $25.49 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade PC ETB | $179.55 | $56.31 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Bundle | $60.10 | $16.08 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade 3 Pack Blister | $33.30 | $8.54 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Single Pack Blister | $11.45 | $2.93 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Build & Battle Box | $49.52 | $12.91 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Sleeved Booster | $8.94 | $2.68 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Art Bundle | $34.05 | $10.72 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Pack | $7.67 | $2.68 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Boxs Across Sets
See how this box stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Box | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perfect Order Booster Box | Perfect Order | $205.37 | $104.76 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Battle Styles Booster Box | Battle Styles | $260.71 | $97.56 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Box | Phantasmal Flames | $394.47 | $132.48 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Temporal Forces Booster Box | Temporal Forces | $291.59 | $97.92 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet Booster Box | Scarlet & Violet | $251.15 | $84.24 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Booster Box | Paldea Evolved | $447.78 | $130.68 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown Booster Box | Stellar Crown | $308.27 | $89.28 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Box | Lost Origin | $718.29 | $202.68 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |