Sword & Shield ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $173.10.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $16.04 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−92%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $189.14.
Expected Loss
−$173.10
The average opening result after paying $189.14 sealed.
Open Average
$16.04
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$10.27
Expected range $0.00-$4.28 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.88
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 630 pack openings.
$1.88 × 8 packs = $15.04
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$15.04 + $1.00 promos = $16.04
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$16.04 × 0.64 = $10.27
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $16.04 ÷ $189.14 = 8.5% • Cash-out: $10.27 ÷ $189.14 = 5.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.88 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 37 | $6.42 | 19.50% | $1.25 | $10.00 | 66.5% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $16.94 | 2.40% | $0.41 | $3.28 | 21.8% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 17 | $1.01 | 22.00% | $0.22 | $1.76 | 11.7% |
| Total | $1.88 | $15.04 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Sword & Shield, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Snorlax VMAX
#142/202 · UR
1 in 190 packs
$61.09
+$2.56 EV
Marnie (Full Art)
#200/202 · UR
1 in 190 packs
$36.74
+$1.52 EV
Snorlax V (Full Art)
#197/202 · UR
1 in 190 packs
$31.63
+$1.36 EV
Snorlax VMAX (Secret)
#206/202 · SR
1 in 583 packs
$90.49
+$1.28 EV
Gengar
#085/202 · H
1 in 77 packs
$8.95
+$0.96 EV
Morpeko VMAX (Secret)
#204/202 · SR
1 in 583 packs
$23.72
+$0.32 EV
Marnie (Secret)
#208/202 · SR
1 in 583 packs
$21.72
+$0.32 EV
Toxicroak
#124/202 · H
1 in 77 packs
$1.05
+$0.08 EV
Marnie
#169/202 · H
1 in 77 packs
$0.90
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 630 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/vivid-voltage-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($189.14) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($189.14) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sword & Shield Booster Box | $684.49 | $67.68 | −90% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield ETB | $189.14 | $16.04 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield 3 Pack Blister | $53.64 | $6.14 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield Build & Battle Box | $72.50 | $15.14 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield Sleeved Booster | $13.08 | $1.88 | −86% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield Booster Pack | $9.07 | $1.88 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |