Shining Fates ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $146.96.
10 packs plus $5.44 in promo value produce $13.24 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−92%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $160.20.
Expected Loss
−$146.96
The average opening result after paying $160.20 sealed.
Open Average
$13.24
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$8.47
Expected range $0.24-$1.32 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $0.78
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$0.78 × 10 packs = $7.80
This product contains 10 booster packs.
$7.80 + $5.44 promos = $13.24
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$13.24 × 0.64 = $8.47
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $13.24 ÷ $160.20 = 8.3% • Cash-out: $8.47 ÷ $160.20 = 5.3%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.78 EV per pack for this 10-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/10pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 23 | $2.75 | 18.00% | $0.50 | $5.00 | 64.1% |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 3 | $3.12 | 5.70% | $0.18 | $1.80 | 23.1% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 7 | $0.21 | 22.00% | $0.05 | $0.50 | 6.4% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $4.84 | 1.10% | $0.05 | $0.50 | 6.4% |
| Total | $0.78 | $7.80 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shining Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Skyla (Full Art)
#072/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$11.81
+$0.90 EV
Kyogre
#021/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$4.57
+$0.90 EV
Poke Kid (Full Art)
#070/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$10.56
+$0.80 EV
Alcremie V (Full Art)
#064/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$6.23
+$0.50 EV
Reshiram
#017/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.75
+$0.50 EV
Alcremie VMAX (Secret)
#073/072 · SR
1 in 91 packs
$4.84
+$0.50 EV
Yveltal
#046/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.04
+$0.40 EV
Frosmoth
#030/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.10 EV
Indeedee
#056/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.10 EV
Decidueye
#008/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.26
+$0.10 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates-shiny-vault, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($160.20) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($160.20) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($5.44) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shining Fates ETB | $160.20 | $13.24 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates V Tin | $55.92 | $4.90 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Collection | $52.68 | $4.62 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Premium Collection | $133.21 | $8.46 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mad Party Pin Collection | $43.87 | $2.84 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mini Tin | $29.76 | $1.56 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Booster Pack | $14.29 | $0.78 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |