Shining Fates ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $115.27.
10 packs plus $4.39 in promo value produce $11.39 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−91%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $126.66.
Expected Loss
−$115.27
The average opening result after paying $126.66 sealed.
Open Average
$11.39
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$7.29
Expected range $0.20-$1.20 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $0.70
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$0.70 × 10 packs = $7.00
This product contains 10 booster packs.
$7.00 + $4.39 promos = $11.39
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$11.39 × 0.64 = $7.29
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $11.39 ÷ $126.66 = 9.0% • Cash-out: $7.29 ÷ $126.66 = 5.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.70 EV per pack for this 10-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/10pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 23 | $2.53 | 18.00% | $0.46 | $4.60 | 65.7% |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 3 | $2.24 | 5.70% | $0.13 | $1.30 | 18.6% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $5.27 | 1.10% | $0.06 | $0.60 | 8.6% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 7 | $0.25 | 22.00% | $0.05 | $0.50 | 7.1% |
| Total | $0.70 | $7.00 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shining Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Skyla (Full Art)
#072/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$12.45
+$1.00 EV
Poke Kid (Full Art)
#070/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$8.45
+$0.70 EV
Kyogre
#021/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.99
+$0.60 EV
Alcremie VMAX (Secret)
#073/072 · SR
1 in 91 packs
$5.27
+$0.60 EV
Alcremie V (Full Art)
#064/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$5.99
+$0.50 EV
Reshiram
#017/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.06
+$0.40 EV
Yveltal
#046/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$1.66
+$0.30 EV
Decidueye
#008/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.10 EV
Indeedee
#056/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.10 EV
Galarian Weezing
#042/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.26
+$0.10 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates-shiny-vault, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($126.66) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($126.66) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($4.39) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shining Fates ETB | $126.66 | $11.39 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates V Tin | $56.05 | $4.50 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Collection | $47.19 | $4.30 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Premium Collection | $110.92 | $7.90 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mad Party Pin Collection | $39.53 | $2.60 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mini Tin | $29.48 | $1.40 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Booster Pack | $14.19 | $0.70 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $641.21 | $316.90 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $293.86 | $145.12 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $229.79 | $110.96 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $149.97 | $71.16 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $158.04 | $65.50 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $148.22 | $60.25 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $481.05 | $189.76 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $89.43 | $35.21 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |