Shining Fates Mini Tin
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $28.08.
2 packs produce $1.40 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−95%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $29.48.
Expected Loss
−$28.08
The average opening result after paying $29.48 sealed.
Open Average
$1.40
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$0.90
Expected range $0.20-$1.20 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $0.70
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$0.70 × 2 packs = $1.40
This product contains 2 booster packs.
$1.40 = $1.40
No promo value applied for this product.
$1.40 × 0.64 = $0.90
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $1.40 ÷ $29.48 = 4.8% • Cash-out: $0.90 ÷ $29.48 = 3.0%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.70 EV per pack for this 2-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/2pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 23 | $2.53 | 18.00% | $0.46 | $0.92 | 65.7% |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 3 | $2.24 | 5.70% | $0.13 | $0.26 | 18.6% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $5.27 | 1.10% | $0.06 | $0.12 | 8.6% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 7 | $0.25 | 22.00% | $0.05 | $0.10 | 7.1% |
| Total | $0.70 | $1.40 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shining Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Skyla (Full Art)
#072/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$12.45
+$0.20 EV
Poke Kid (Full Art)
#070/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$8.45
+$0.14 EV
Kyogre
#021/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.99
+$0.12 EV
Alcremie VMAX (Secret)
#073/072 · SR
1 in 91 packs
$5.27
+$0.12 EV
Alcremie V (Full Art)
#064/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$5.99
+$0.10 EV
Reshiram
#017/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.06
+$0.08 EV
Yveltal
#046/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$1.66
+$0.06 EV
Decidueye
#008/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.02 EV
Indeedee
#056/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.02 EV
Galarian Weezing
#042/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.26
+$0.02 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates-shiny-vault, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $9.99. Current sealed price ($29.48) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($29.48) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shining Fates ETB | $126.66 | $11.39 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates V Tin | $56.05 | $4.50 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Collection | $47.19 | $4.30 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Premium Collection | $110.92 | $7.90 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mad Party Pin Collection | $39.53 | $2.60 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mini Tin | $29.48 | $1.40 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Booster Pack | $14.19 | $0.70 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Tins Across Sets
See how this tin stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Tin | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascended Heroes Mini Tin | Ascended Heroes | $22.98 | $13.88 | −40% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Mini Tin | Black Bolt | $19.30 | $9.20 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Mini Tin | Pokemon 151 | $44.33 | $19.82 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin | Shrouded Fable | $19.97 | $7.46 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Charizard Tin (Y) | Multi-Set Products | $35.55 | $12.54 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Charizard Tin (X) | Multi-Set Products | $36.75 | $12.54 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tin | Paldean Fates | $98.02 | $28.00 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Mini Tin | Paldean Fates | $38.32 | $10.80 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |