Don't rip Shining Fates right now.
Keep it sealed.
Even the best product loses $42.98 on average.
If you must open something: Shining Fates Collection loses the least at −$42.98.
All 7 Products
Shining Fates Collection
4 packs
−$42.98
−92% return
$46.92 sealed → $3.94 EV
See full breakdown →
Shining Fates V Tin
5 packs
−$50.87
−93% return
$54.92 sealed → $4.05 EV
See full breakdown →
Shining Fates Premium Collection
7 packs
−$94.37
−93% return
$101.64 sealed → $7.27 EV
See full breakdown →
Shining Fates ETB
10 packs
−$107.29
−93% return
$115.39 sealed → $8.10 EV
See full breakdown →
Shining Fates Booster Pack
1 pack
−$12.26
−95% return
$12.87 sealed → $0.61 EV
See full breakdown →
Shining Fates Mini Tin
2 packs
−$26.06
−96% return
$27.28 sealed → $1.22 EV
See full breakdown →
Shining Fates Mad Party Pin Collection
3 packs
−$58.53
−96% return
$60.86 sealed → $2.33 EV
See full breakdown →
Chase Cards — What could you pull?
Skyla (Full Art)
#072/072
Ultra Rare$10.36
EV: $0.08
Poke Kid (Full Art)
#070/072
Ultra Rare$7.46
EV: $0.06
Alcremie VMAX (Secret)
#073/072
Secret Rare$5.04
EV: $0.06
Kyogre
#021/072
Amazing Rare$2.38
EV: $0.05
Ball Guy (Full Art)
#065/072
Ultra Rare$4.57
EV: $0.04
Alcremie V (Full Art)
#064/072
Ultra Rare$4.41
EV: $0.03
Ditto VMAX
#051/072
Ultra Rare$3.78
EV: $0.03
Reshiram
#017/072
Amazing Rare$1.32
EV: $0.03
Yveltal
#046/072
Amazing Rare$1.29
EV: $0.02
Morpeko VMAX
#038/072
Ultra Rare$2.19
EV: $0.02
The Math — EV Breakdown & Pull Rates
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 23 | $2.29 | 18.00% | $0.41 |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 3 | $1.66 | 5.70% | $0.09 |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $5.04 | 1.10% | $0.06 |
| Holo Rare(H) | 7 | $0.23 | 22.00% | $0.05 |
| Total EV / Pack | $0.61 | |||
| Rarity | Pull Rate | Odds | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holo Rare(H) | 22.00% | 1 in 5 | 500 |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 18.00% | 1 in 6 | 500 |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 5.70% | 1 in 18 | 500 |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1.10% | 1 in 91 | 500 |
Sources: https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates-shiny-vault, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is Shining Fates worth opening?
- At current market prices, Shining Fates Collection loses $42.98 on average. You are better off keeping it sealed or buying singles directly.
- What is the EV of a Shining Fates booster pack?
- The expected value of a single Shining Fates booster pack is $0.61 based on current TCGPlayer market prices and community pull rate data.
- What are the best cards to pull in Shining Fates?
- The most valuable cards in Shining Fates are Skyla (Full Art) ($10.36), Poke Kid (Full Art) ($7.46), Alcremie VMAX (Secret) ($5.04).
- How often do you pull a chase card in Shining Fates?
- Pull rates are based on 500 pack openings from community sources. See the pull rate table below for exact odds per rarity tier.
As of February 2026, Shining Fates products lose an average of $56.05 (−94%) based on current TCGPlayer market prices and community-sourced pull rate data from 500+ pack openings.