Shining Fates Booster Pack
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $13.51.
1 packs produce $0.78 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−95%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $14.29.
Expected Loss
−$13.51
The average opening result after paying $14.29 sealed.
Open Average
$0.78
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$0.50
Expected range $0.24-$1.32 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $0.78
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$0.78 × 1 packs = $0.78
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$0.78 = $0.78
No promo value applied for this product.
$0.78 × 0.64 = $0.50
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $0.78 ÷ $14.29 = 5.5% • Cash-out: $0.50 ÷ $14.29 = 3.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.78 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 23 | $2.75 | 18.00% | $0.50 | $0.50 | 64.1% |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 3 | $3.12 | 5.70% | $0.18 | $0.18 | 23.1% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 7 | $0.21 | 22.00% | $0.05 | $0.05 | 6.4% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $4.84 | 1.10% | $0.05 | $0.05 | 6.4% |
| Total | $0.78 | $0.78 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shining Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Skyla (Full Art)
#072/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$11.81
+$0.09 EV
Kyogre
#021/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$4.57
+$0.09 EV
Poke Kid (Full Art)
#070/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$10.56
+$0.08 EV
Alcremie V (Full Art)
#064/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$6.23
+$0.05 EV
Reshiram
#017/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.75
+$0.05 EV
Alcremie VMAX (Secret)
#073/072 · SR
1 in 91 packs
$4.84
+$0.05 EV
Yveltal
#046/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.04
+$0.04 EV
Frosmoth
#030/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.01 EV
Indeedee
#056/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.01 EV
Decidueye
#008/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.26
+$0.01 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates-shiny-vault, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $4.49. Current sealed price ($14.29) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($14.29) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shining Fates ETB | $160.20 | $13.24 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates V Tin | $55.92 | $4.90 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Collection | $52.68 | $4.62 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Premium Collection | $133.21 | $8.46 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mad Party Pin Collection | $43.87 | $2.84 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mini Tin | $29.76 | $1.56 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Booster Pack | $14.29 | $0.78 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Packs Across Sets
See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Pack | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Flygon Line | Chaos Rising | $20.20 | $11.57 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Pawmot Line | Chaos Rising | $21.66 | $11.57 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack | Chaos Rising | $6.97 | $3.69 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster | Chaos Rising | $7.79 | $3.69 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Booster Pack | Ascended Heroes | $16.13 | $7.62 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising 3 Pack Blister | Chaos Rising | $25.91 | $11.57 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Booster Pack | Perfect Order | $6.26 | $2.70 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Sleeved Booster | Perfect Order | $6.40 | $2.70 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |