Shining Fates Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $48.06.
4 packs plus $1.50 in promo value produce $4.62 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−91%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $52.68.
Expected Loss
−$48.06
The average opening result after paying $52.68 sealed.
Open Average
$4.62
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$2.96
Expected range $0.24-$1.32 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $0.78
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$0.78 × 4 packs = $3.12
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$3.12 + $1.50 promos = $4.62
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$4.62 × 0.64 = $2.96
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $4.62 ÷ $52.68 = 8.8% • Cash-out: $2.96 ÷ $52.68 = 5.6%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.78 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 23 | $2.75 | 18.00% | $0.50 | $2.00 | 64.1% |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 3 | $3.12 | 5.70% | $0.18 | $0.72 | 23.1% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 7 | $0.21 | 22.00% | $0.05 | $0.20 | 6.4% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $4.84 | 1.10% | $0.05 | $0.20 | 6.4% |
| Total | $0.78 | $3.12 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shining Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Skyla (Full Art)
#072/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$11.81
+$0.36 EV
Kyogre
#021/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$4.57
+$0.36 EV
Poke Kid (Full Art)
#070/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$10.56
+$0.32 EV
Alcremie V (Full Art)
#064/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$6.23
+$0.20 EV
Reshiram
#017/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.75
+$0.20 EV
Alcremie VMAX (Secret)
#073/072 · SR
1 in 91 packs
$4.84
+$0.20 EV
Yveltal
#046/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.04
+$0.16 EV
Frosmoth
#030/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.04 EV
Indeedee
#056/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.04 EV
Decidueye
#008/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.26
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates-shiny-vault, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $24.99. Current sealed price ($52.68) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($52.68) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.50) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shining Fates ETB | $160.20 | $13.24 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates V Tin | $55.92 | $4.90 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Collection | $52.68 | $4.62 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Premium Collection | $133.21 | $8.46 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mad Party Pin Collection | $43.87 | $2.84 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mini Tin | $29.76 | $1.56 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Booster Pack | $14.29 | $0.78 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |