Darkness Ablaze ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $108.37.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $10.52 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−91%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $118.89.
Expected Loss
−$108.37
The average opening result after paying $118.89 sealed.
Open Average
$10.52
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$6.73
Expected range $0.00-$3.00 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.19
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 630 pack openings.
$1.19 × 8 packs = $9.52
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$9.52 + $1.00 promos = $10.52
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$10.52 × 0.64 = $6.73
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $10.52 ÷ $118.89 = 8.8% • Cash-out: $6.73 ÷ $118.89 = 5.7%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.19 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 34 | $4.40 | 19.50% | $0.86 | $6.88 | 72.3% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 12 | $8.13 | 2.40% | $0.20 | $1.60 | 16.8% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 18 | $0.60 | 22.00% | $0.13 | $1.04 | 10.9% |
| Total | $1.19 | $9.52 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Darkness Ablaze, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard VMAX
#020/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$56.03
+$2.56 EV
Charizard V
#019/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$10.29
+$0.48 EV
Mew V
#069/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$8.63
+$0.40 EV
Butterfree VMAX (Secret)
#190/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$23.48
+$0.40 EV
Salamence VMAX (Secret)
#194/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$15.81
+$0.24 EV
Scizor VMAX (Secret)
#193/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$12.53
+$0.24 EV
Arctozolt
#066/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$1.98
+$0.16 EV
Suicune
#037/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$1.09
+$0.08 EV
Blaziken
#024/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$0.96
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 630 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/vivid-voltage-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/swsh3/darkness-ablaze/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($118.89) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($118.89) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Box | $345.40 | $42.84 | −88% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze ETB | $118.89 | $10.52 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze 3 Pack Blister | $41.07 | $4.07 | −90% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Build & Battle Box | $61.22 | $13.15 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Sleeved Booster | $10.66 | $1.19 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Pack | $8.93 | $1.19 | −87% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |