Darkness Ablaze Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $52.25.
4 packs plus $8.02 in promo value produce $11.98 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−81%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $64.23.
Expected Loss
−$52.25
The average opening result after paying $64.23 sealed.
Open Average
$11.98
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$7.67
Expected range $0.00-$2.44 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $0.99
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 630 pack openings.
$0.99 × 4 packs = $3.96
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$3.96 + $8.02 promos = $11.98
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$11.98 × 0.64 = $7.67
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $11.98 ÷ $64.23 = 18.6% • Cash-out: $7.67 ÷ $64.23 = 11.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.99 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 34 | $3.57 | 19.50% | $0.70 | $2.80 | 70.7% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 12 | $7.31 | 2.40% | $0.18 | $0.72 | 18.2% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 18 | $0.52 | 22.00% | $0.11 | $0.44 | 11.1% |
| Total | $0.99 | $3.96 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Darkness Ablaze, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard VMAX
#020/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$45.12
+$1.04 EV
Charizard V
#019/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$7.08
+$0.16 EV
Houndoom V (Full Art)
#178/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$5.01
+$0.12 EV
Butterfree VMAX (Secret)
#190/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$16.06
+$0.12 EV
Salamence VMAX (Secret)
#194/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$14.58
+$0.12 EV
Arctozolt
#066/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$1.59
+$0.08 EV
Eternatus VMAX (Secret)
#192/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$11.69
+$0.08 EV
Suicune
#037/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$0.96
+$0.04 EV
Dracovish
#053/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$0.84
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 630 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/vivid-voltage-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/swsh3/darkness-ablaze/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($64.23) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($64.23) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($8.02) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Box | $327.53 | $35.64 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze ETB | $107.80 | $8.92 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze 3 Pack Blister | $38.08 | $3.47 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Build & Battle Box | $64.23 | $11.98 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Sleeved Booster | $9.99 | $0.99 | −90% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Pack | $8.21 | $0.99 | −88% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | Black Bolt | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |