Darkness Ablaze Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $48.07.
4 packs plus $8.39 in promo value produce $13.15 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−79%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $61.22.
Expected Loss
−$48.07
The average opening result after paying $61.22 sealed.
Open Average
$13.15
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$8.42
Expected range $0.00-$3.00 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.19
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 630 pack openings.
$1.19 × 4 packs = $4.76
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$4.76 + $8.39 promos = $13.15
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$13.15 × 0.64 = $8.42
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $13.15 ÷ $61.22 = 21.5% • Cash-out: $8.42 ÷ $61.22 = 13.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.19 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 34 | $4.40 | 19.50% | $0.86 | $3.44 | 72.3% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 12 | $8.13 | 2.40% | $0.20 | $0.80 | 16.8% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 18 | $0.60 | 22.00% | $0.13 | $0.52 | 10.9% |
| Total | $1.19 | $4.76 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Darkness Ablaze, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard VMAX
#020/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$56.03
+$1.28 EV
Charizard V
#019/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$10.29
+$0.24 EV
Mew V
#069/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$8.63
+$0.20 EV
Butterfree VMAX (Secret)
#190/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$23.48
+$0.20 EV
Salamence VMAX (Secret)
#194/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$15.81
+$0.12 EV
Scizor VMAX (Secret)
#193/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$12.53
+$0.12 EV
Arctozolt
#066/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$1.98
+$0.08 EV
Suicune
#037/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$1.09
+$0.04 EV
Blaziken
#024/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$0.96
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 630 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/vivid-voltage-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/swsh3/darkness-ablaze/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($61.22) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($61.22) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($8.39) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Box | $345.40 | $42.84 | −88% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze ETB | $118.89 | $10.52 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze 3 Pack Blister | $41.07 | $4.07 | −90% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Build & Battle Box | $61.22 | $13.15 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Sleeved Booster | $10.66 | $1.19 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Pack | $8.93 | $1.19 | −87% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |