Astral Radiance ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $113.99.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $25.08 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−82%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $139.07.
Expected Loss
−$113.99
The average opening result after paying $139.07 sealed.
Open Average
$25.08
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$16.05
Expected range $0.00-$10.21 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.01
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 615 pack openings.
$3.01 × 8 packs = $24.08
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$24.08 + $1.00 promos = $25.08
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$25.08 × 0.64 = $16.05
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $25.08 ÷ $139.07 = 18.0% • Cash-out: $16.05 ÷ $139.07 = 11.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.01 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 58 | $11.00 | 23.90% | $2.63 | $21.04 | 87.4% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 27 | $7.26 | 2.44% | $0.18 | $1.44 | 6.0% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 20 | $0.38 | 25.53% | $0.10 | $0.80 | 3.3% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $2.00 | 4.88% | $0.10 | $0.80 | 3.3% |
| Total | $3.01 | $24.08 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Astral Radiance, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Machamp V (Alternate Full Art)
#172/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$198.58
+$6.56 EV
Origin Forme Palkia V (Alternate Full Art)
#167/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$89.43
+$2.96 EV
Origin Forme Dialga V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$69.00
+$2.24 EV
Radiant Greninja
#046/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$4.75
+$0.64 EV
Machamp VMAX (Secret)
#194/189 · SR
1 in 1107 packs
$16.75
+$0.16 EV
Rampardos
#077/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.66
+$0.08 EV
Absol
#097/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.55
+$0.08 EV
Irida
#147/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.55
+$0.08 EV
Radiant Hawlucha
#081/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.64
+$0.08 EV
Radiant Heatran
#027/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.61
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 615 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/astral-radiance-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/05/15/astral-radiance-pull-rates-are-surprisingly-good-in-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($139.07) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($139.07) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astral Radiance Booster Box | $405.86 | $108.36 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance ETB | $139.07 | $25.08 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance PC ETB | $211.60 | $32.10 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance 3 Pack Blister | $44.03 | $9.53 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Sleeved Booster | $11.64 | $3.01 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Booster Pack | $9.94 | $3.01 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |