Astral Radiance ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $85.94.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $21.72 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−80%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $107.66.
Expected Loss
−$85.94
The average opening result after paying $107.66 sealed.
Open Average
$21.72
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$13.90
Expected range $0.00-$8.75 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.59
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 615 pack openings.
$2.59 × 8 packs = $20.72
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$20.72 + $1.00 promos = $21.72
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$21.72 × 0.64 = $13.90
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $21.72 ÷ $107.66 = 20.2% • Cash-out: $13.90 ÷ $107.66 = 12.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.59 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 58 | $9.50 | 23.90% | $2.27 | $18.16 | 87.6% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 27 | $6.73 | 2.44% | $0.16 | $1.28 | 6.2% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 20 | $0.35 | 25.53% | $0.09 | $0.72 | 3.5% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $1.47 | 4.88% | $0.07 | $0.56 | 2.7% |
| Total | $2.59 | $20.72 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Astral Radiance, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Machamp V (Alternate Full Art)
#172/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$172.18
+$5.68 EV
Origin Forme Palkia V (Alternate Full Art)
#167/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$75.59
+$2.48 EV
Origin Forme Dialga V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$56.53
+$1.84 EV
Radiant Greninja
#046/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$3.22
+$0.40 EV
Rampardos
#077/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.63
+$0.08 EV
Absol
#097/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.51
+$0.08 EV
Regigigas
#130/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.42
+$0.08 EV
Radiant Hawlucha
#081/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.65
+$0.08 EV
Radiant Heatran
#027/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.53
+$0.08 EV
Origin Forme Dialga VSTAR - 198/189 (Secret)
#198/189 · SR
1 in 1107 packs
$14.36
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 615 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/astral-radiance-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/05/15/astral-radiance-pull-rates-are-surprisingly-good-in-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($107.66) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($107.66) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astral Radiance Booster Box | $386.76 | $93.24 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance ETB | $107.66 | $21.72 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance PC ETB | $176.21 | $27.90 | −84% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance 3 Pack Blister | $33.33 | $8.27 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Sleeved Booster | $10.60 | $2.59 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Booster Pack | $9.29 | $2.59 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $641.21 | $316.90 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $293.86 | $145.12 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $229.79 | $110.96 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $149.97 | $71.16 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $158.04 | $65.50 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $148.22 | $60.25 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $481.05 | $189.76 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $89.43 | $35.21 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |