Astral Radiance Booster Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $297.50.
36 packs produce $108.36 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−73%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $405.86.
Expected Loss
−$297.50
The average opening result after paying $405.86 sealed.
Open Average
$108.36
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$69.35
Expected range $0.00-$10.21 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.01
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 615 pack openings.
$3.01 × 36 packs = $108.36
This product contains 36 booster packs.
$108.36 = $108.36
No promo value applied for this product.
$108.36 × 0.64 = $69.35
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $108.36 ÷ $405.86 = 26.7% • Cash-out: $69.35 ÷ $405.86 = 17.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.01 EV per pack for this 36-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/36pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 58 | $11.00 | 23.90% | $2.63 | $94.68 | 87.4% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 27 | $7.26 | 2.44% | $0.18 | $6.48 | 6.0% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 20 | $0.38 | 25.53% | $0.10 | $3.60 | 3.3% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $2.00 | 4.88% | $0.10 | $3.60 | 3.3% |
| Total | $3.01 | $108.36 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Astral Radiance, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Machamp V (Alternate Full Art)
#172/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$198.58
+$29.52 EV
Origin Forme Palkia V (Alternate Full Art)
#167/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$89.43
+$13.32 EV
Origin Forme Dialga V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$69.00
+$10.08 EV
Radiant Greninja
#046/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$4.75
+$2.88 EV
Machamp VMAX (Secret)
#194/189 · SR
1 in 1107 packs
$16.75
+$0.72 EV
Rampardos
#077/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.66
+$0.36 EV
Absol
#097/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.55
+$0.36 EV
Irida
#147/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.55
+$0.36 EV
Radiant Hawlucha
#081/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.64
+$0.36 EV
Radiant Heatran
#027/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.61
+$0.36 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 615 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/astral-radiance-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/05/15/astral-radiance-pull-rates-are-surprisingly-good-in-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $143.64. Current sealed price ($405.86) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($405.86) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astral Radiance Booster Box | $405.86 | $108.36 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance ETB | $139.07 | $25.08 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance PC ETB | $211.60 | $32.10 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance 3 Pack Blister | $44.03 | $9.53 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Sleeved Booster | $11.64 | $3.01 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Booster Pack | $9.94 | $3.01 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Boxs Across Sets
See how this box stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Box | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Booster Box | Chaos Rising | $238.96 | $132.84 | −44% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Booster Box | Perfect Order | $227.93 | $97.20 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Battle Styles Booster Box | Battle Styles | $272.88 | $107.28 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Temporal Forces Booster Box | Temporal Forces | $332.86 | $127.80 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet Booster Box | Scarlet & Violet | $302.46 | $100.08 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Box | Phantasmal Flames | $443.72 | $144.72 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown Booster Box | Stellar Crown | $337.01 | $108.72 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Booster Box | Paldea Evolved | $503.62 | $156.96 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |