Surging Sparks ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $92.89.
9 packs plus $9.08 in promo value produce $28.79 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−76%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $121.68.
Expected Loss
−$92.89
The average opening result after paying $121.68 sealed.
Open Average
$28.79
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$18.43
Expected range $0.83-$3.55 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.19
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.19 × 9 packs = $19.71
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$19.71 + $9.08 promos = $28.79
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$28.79 × 0.64 = $18.43
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $28.79 ÷ $121.68 = 23.7% • Cash-out: $18.43 ÷ $121.68 = 15.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.19 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $76.83 | 1.15% | $0.88 | $7.92 | 40.2% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 23 | $8.93 | 7.70% | $0.69 | $6.21 | 31.5% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $3.63 | 6.70% | $0.24 | $2.16 | 11.0% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 18 | $1.21 | 16.70% | $0.20 | $1.80 | 9.1% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $21.93 | 0.53% | $0.12 | $1.08 | 5.5% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 8 | $1.11 | 5.00% | $0.06 | $0.54 | 2.7% |
| Total | $2.19 | $19.71 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Surging Sparks, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Pikachu ex - 238/191
#238/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$338.63
+$3.15 EV
Latias ex - 239/191
#239/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$182.69
+$1.71 EV
Milotic ex - 237/191
#237/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$134.24
+$1.26 EV
Latios - 203/191
#203/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$34.43
+$1.08 EV
Pikachu ex - 219/191
#219/191 · UR
1 in 313 packs
$30.45
+$0.90 EV
Ceruledge - 197/191
#197/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$24.86
+$0.72 EV
Pikachu ex - 247/191
#247/191 · HR
1 in 1132 packs
$90.41
+$0.72 EV
Latias ex - 076/191
#076/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$5.26
+$0.45 EV
Slakoth - 212/191
#212/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$14.86
+$0.45 EV
Pikachu ex - 057/191
#057/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$4.79
+$0.36 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Surging-Sparks-Pull-Rates, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-surging-sparks-booster-box). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($121.68) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($121.68) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($9.08) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Sparks Booster Box | $277.01 | $78.84 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks ETB | $121.68 | $28.79 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks PC ETB | $278.95 | $104.07 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Bundle | $62.68 | $13.14 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blister | $36.86 | $7.07 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister | $15.55 | $2.44 | −84% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box | $57.86 | $15.26 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster | $24.40 | $2.19 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Art Bundle | $33.91 | $8.76 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Pack | $7.91 | $2.19 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |