Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $22.51.
1 packs produce $2.23 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−91%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $24.74.
Expected Loss
−$22.51
The average opening result after paying $24.74 sealed.
Open Average
$2.23
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$1.43
Expected range $0.87-$3.59 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.23
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.23 × 1 packs = $2.23
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$2.23 = $2.23
No promo value applied for this product.
$2.23 × 0.64 = $1.43
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $2.23 ÷ $24.74 = 9.0% • Cash-out: $1.43 ÷ $24.74 = 5.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.23 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $77.28 | 1.15% | $0.89 | $0.89 | 39.9% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 23 | $9.02 | 7.70% | $0.69 | $0.69 | 30.9% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $3.71 | 6.70% | $0.25 | $0.25 | 11.2% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 18 | $1.36 | 16.70% | $0.23 | $0.23 | 10.3% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $21.52 | 0.53% | $0.11 | $0.11 | 4.9% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 8 | $1.17 | 5.00% | $0.06 | $0.06 | 2.7% |
| Total | $2.23 | $2.23 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Surging Sparks, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Pikachu ex - 238/191
#238/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$333.71
+$0.35 EV
Latias ex - 239/191
#239/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$184.67
+$0.19 EV
Milotic ex - 237/191
#237/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$138.50
+$0.14 EV
Latios - 203/191
#203/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$36.02
+$0.12 EV
Pikachu ex - 219/191
#219/191 · UR
1 in 313 packs
$30.44
+$0.10 EV
Ceruledge - 197/191
#197/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$24.22
+$0.08 EV
Pikachu ex - 247/191
#247/191 · HR
1 in 1132 packs
$88.34
+$0.08 EV
Pikachu ex - 057/191
#057/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$5.29
+$0.05 EV
Latias ex - 076/191
#076/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$5.09
+$0.05 EV
Slakoth - 212/191
#212/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$15.38
+$0.05 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Surging-Sparks-Pull-Rates, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-surging-sparks-booster-box). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $4.49. Current sealed price ($24.74) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($24.74) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Sparks Booster Box | $289.78 | $80.28 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks ETB | $123.97 | $28.95 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks PC ETB | $277.03 | $106.85 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Bundle | $60.00 | $13.38 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blister | $37.35 | $7.19 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister | $15.38 | $2.48 | −84% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box | $58.20 | $15.47 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster | $24.74 | $2.23 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Art Bundle | $34.54 | $8.92 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Pack | $7.64 | $2.23 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Packs Across Sets
See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Pack | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Flygon Line | Chaos Rising | $20.21 | $11.78 | −42% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Pawmot Line | Chaos Rising | $20.95 | $11.78 | −44% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Booster Pack | Ascended Heroes | $14.27 | $7.67 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack | Chaos Rising | $7.32 | $3.76 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster | Chaos Rising | $7.82 | $3.76 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | Black Bolt | $13.55 | $6.10 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising 3 Pack Blister | Chaos Rising | $26.55 | $11.78 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Booster Pack | Perfect Order | $6.14 | $2.69 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |