Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $42.60.
4 packs plus $6.50 in promo value produce $15.26 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−74%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $57.86.
Expected Loss
−$42.60
The average opening result after paying $57.86 sealed.
Open Average
$15.26
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$9.77
Expected range $0.83-$3.55 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.19
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.19 × 4 packs = $8.76
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$8.76 + $6.50 promos = $15.26
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$15.26 × 0.64 = $9.77
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $15.26 ÷ $57.86 = 26.4% • Cash-out: $9.77 ÷ $57.86 = 16.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.19 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $76.83 | 1.15% | $0.88 | $3.52 | 40.2% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 23 | $8.93 | 7.70% | $0.69 | $2.76 | 31.5% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $3.63 | 6.70% | $0.24 | $0.96 | 11.0% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 18 | $1.21 | 16.70% | $0.20 | $0.80 | 9.1% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $21.93 | 0.53% | $0.12 | $0.48 | 5.5% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 8 | $1.11 | 5.00% | $0.06 | $0.24 | 2.7% |
| Total | $2.19 | $8.76 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Surging Sparks, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Pikachu ex - 238/191
#238/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$338.63
+$1.40 EV
Latias ex - 239/191
#239/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$182.69
+$0.76 EV
Milotic ex - 237/191
#237/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$134.24
+$0.56 EV
Latios - 203/191
#203/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$34.43
+$0.48 EV
Pikachu ex - 219/191
#219/191 · UR
1 in 313 packs
$30.45
+$0.40 EV
Ceruledge - 197/191
#197/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$24.86
+$0.32 EV
Pikachu ex - 247/191
#247/191 · HR
1 in 1132 packs
$90.41
+$0.32 EV
Latias ex - 076/191
#076/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$5.26
+$0.20 EV
Slakoth - 212/191
#212/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$14.86
+$0.20 EV
Pikachu ex - 057/191
#057/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$4.79
+$0.16 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Surging-Sparks-Pull-Rates, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-surging-sparks-booster-box). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($57.86) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($57.86) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($6.50) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Sparks Booster Box | $277.01 | $78.84 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks ETB | $121.68 | $28.79 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks PC ETB | $278.95 | $104.07 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Bundle | $62.68 | $13.14 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blister | $36.86 | $7.07 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister | $15.55 | $2.44 | −84% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box | $57.86 | $15.26 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster | $24.40 | $2.19 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Art Bundle | $33.91 | $8.76 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Pack | $7.91 | $2.19 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |