Surging Sparks Booster Pack
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $5.72.
1 packs produce $2.19 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−72%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $7.91.
Expected Loss
−$5.72
The average opening result after paying $7.91 sealed.
Open Average
$2.19
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$1.40
Expected range $0.83-$3.55 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.19
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.19 × 1 packs = $2.19
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$2.19 = $2.19
No promo value applied for this product.
$2.19 × 0.64 = $1.40
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $2.19 ÷ $7.91 = 27.7% • Cash-out: $1.40 ÷ $7.91 = 17.7%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.19 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $76.83 | 1.15% | $0.88 | $0.88 | 40.2% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 23 | $8.93 | 7.70% | $0.69 | $0.69 | 31.5% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $3.63 | 6.70% | $0.24 | $0.24 | 11.0% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 18 | $1.21 | 16.70% | $0.20 | $0.20 | 9.1% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $21.93 | 0.53% | $0.12 | $0.12 | 5.5% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 8 | $1.11 | 5.00% | $0.06 | $0.06 | 2.7% |
| Total | $2.19 | $2.19 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Surging Sparks, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Pikachu ex - 238/191
#238/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$338.63
+$0.35 EV
Latias ex - 239/191
#239/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$182.69
+$0.19 EV
Milotic ex - 237/191
#237/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$134.24
+$0.14 EV
Latios - 203/191
#203/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$34.43
+$0.12 EV
Pikachu ex - 219/191
#219/191 · UR
1 in 313 packs
$30.45
+$0.10 EV
Ceruledge - 197/191
#197/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$24.86
+$0.08 EV
Pikachu ex - 247/191
#247/191 · HR
1 in 1132 packs
$90.41
+$0.08 EV
Latias ex - 076/191
#076/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$5.26
+$0.05 EV
Slakoth - 212/191
#212/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$14.86
+$0.05 EV
Pikachu ex - 057/191
#057/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$4.79
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Surging-Sparks-Pull-Rates, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-surging-sparks-booster-box). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $4.49. Current sealed price ($7.91) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($7.91) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Sparks Booster Box | $277.01 | $78.84 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks ETB | $121.68 | $28.79 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks PC ETB | $278.95 | $104.07 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Bundle | $62.68 | $13.14 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blister | $36.86 | $7.07 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister | $15.55 | $2.44 | −84% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box | $57.86 | $15.26 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster | $24.40 | $2.19 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Art Bundle | $33.91 | $8.76 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Pack | $7.91 | $2.19 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Packs Across Sets
See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Pack | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Flygon Line | Chaos Rising | $20.20 | $11.57 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Pawmot Line | Chaos Rising | $21.66 | $11.57 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack | Chaos Rising | $6.97 | $3.69 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster | Chaos Rising | $7.79 | $3.69 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Booster Pack | Ascended Heroes | $16.13 | $7.62 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising 3 Pack Blister | Chaos Rising | $25.91 | $11.57 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Booster Pack | Perfect Order | $6.26 | $2.70 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Sleeved Booster | Perfect Order | $6.40 | $2.70 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |