Phantasmal Flames ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $109.59.
9 packs plus $2.68 in promo value produce $38.86 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−74%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $148.45.
Expected Loss
−$109.59
The average opening result after paying $148.45 sealed.
Open Average
$38.86
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$24.87
Expected range $0.00-$8.40 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $4.02
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$4.02 × 9 packs = $36.18
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$36.18 + $2.68 promos = $38.86
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$38.86 × 0.64 = $24.87
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $38.86 ÷ $148.45 = 26.2% • Cash-out: $24.87 ÷ $148.45 = 16.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.02 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $192.95 | 1.25% | $2.41 | $21.69 | 60.0% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 13 | $6.89 | 11.10% | $0.76 | $6.84 | 18.9% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 17 | $3.94 | 8.30% | $0.33 | $2.97 | 8.2% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 1 | $335.87 | 0.08% | $0.27 | $2.43 | 6.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.27 | 20.00% | $0.25 | $2.25 | 6.2% |
| Total | $4.02 | $36.18 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Phantasmal Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Charizard X ex - 125/094
#125/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$867.15
+$19.53 EV
Meowth
#106/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$31.30
+$2.43 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 130/094
#130/094 · MHR
1 in 1259 packs
$335.87
+$2.43 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 109/094
#109/094 · UR
1 in 205 packs
$36.69
+$1.62 EV
Piplup - 098/094
#098/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$18.80
+$1.44 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 013/094
#013/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$5.21
+$0.90 EV
Dawn - 129/094
#129/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$31.38
+$0.72 EV
Mega Gengar ex
#056/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$3.12
+$0.54 EV
Wigglytuff - 105/094
#105/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$7.34
+$0.54 EV
Mega Sharpedo ex - 127/094
#127/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$24.74
+$0.54 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Phantasmal-Flames-Pull-Rates/9abae60d-b7fb-448f-874e-176f78d6a6ca/, https://screenrant.com/pokemon-tcg-phantasmal-flames-mega-charizard-ex-sir-pull-rate/, https://tcgprotectors.com/blogs/pokemon-blog/phantasmal-flames-pull-rates-10000-packs-analyzed-hits-or-misses). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($148.45) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($148.45) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.68) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Box | $443.72 | $144.72 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames ETB | $148.45 | $38.86 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames PC ETB | $335.05 | $101.39 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Bundle | $72.83 | $24.12 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames 3 Pack Blister | $36.94 | $12.56 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister | $11.74 | $4.27 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | $60.79 | $28.06 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster | $12.11 | $4.02 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Art Bundle | $49.57 | $16.08 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack | $10.38 | $4.02 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |