Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $32.73.
4 packs plus $11.98 in promo value produce $28.06 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−54%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $60.79.
Expected Loss
−$32.73
The average opening result after paying $60.79 sealed.
Open Average
$28.06
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$17.96
Expected range $0.00-$8.40 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $4.02
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$4.02 × 4 packs = $16.08
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$16.08 + $11.98 promos = $28.06
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$28.06 × 0.64 = $17.96
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $28.06 ÷ $60.79 = 46.2% • Cash-out: $17.96 ÷ $60.79 = 29.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.02 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $192.95 | 1.25% | $2.41 | $9.64 | 60.0% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 13 | $6.89 | 11.10% | $0.76 | $3.04 | 18.9% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 17 | $3.94 | 8.30% | $0.33 | $1.32 | 8.2% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 1 | $335.87 | 0.08% | $0.27 | $1.08 | 6.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.27 | 20.00% | $0.25 | $1.00 | 6.2% |
| Total | $4.02 | $16.08 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Phantasmal Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Charizard X ex - 125/094
#125/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$867.15
+$8.68 EV
Meowth
#106/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$31.30
+$1.08 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 130/094
#130/094 · MHR
1 in 1259 packs
$335.87
+$1.08 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 109/094
#109/094 · UR
1 in 205 packs
$36.69
+$0.72 EV
Piplup - 098/094
#098/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$18.80
+$0.64 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 013/094
#013/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$5.21
+$0.40 EV
Dawn - 129/094
#129/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$31.38
+$0.32 EV
Mega Gengar ex
#056/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$3.12
+$0.24 EV
Wigglytuff - 105/094
#105/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$7.34
+$0.24 EV
Mega Sharpedo ex - 127/094
#127/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$24.74
+$0.24 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Phantasmal-Flames-Pull-Rates/9abae60d-b7fb-448f-874e-176f78d6a6ca/, https://screenrant.com/pokemon-tcg-phantasmal-flames-mega-charizard-ex-sir-pull-rate/, https://tcgprotectors.com/blogs/pokemon-blog/phantasmal-flames-pull-rates-10000-packs-analyzed-hits-or-misses). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($60.79) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($60.79) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($11.98) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Box | $443.72 | $144.72 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames ETB | $148.45 | $38.86 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames PC ETB | $335.05 | $101.39 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Bundle | $72.83 | $24.12 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames 3 Pack Blister | $36.94 | $12.56 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister | $11.74 | $4.27 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | $60.79 | $28.06 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster | $12.11 | $4.02 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Art Bundle | $49.57 | $16.08 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack | $10.38 | $4.02 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |