Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $28.93.
4 packs plus $12.59 in promo value produce $27.31 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−51%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $56.24.
Expected Loss
−$28.93
The average opening result after paying $56.24 sealed.
Open Average
$27.31
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$17.48
Expected range $0.00-$7.80 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.68
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$3.68 × 4 packs = $14.72
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$14.72 + $12.59 promos = $27.31
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$27.31 × 0.64 = $17.48
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $27.31 ÷ $56.24 = 48.6% • Cash-out: $17.48 ÷ $56.24 = 31.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.68 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $184.35 | 1.25% | $2.30 | $9.20 | 62.5% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 13 | $5.19 | 11.10% | $0.58 | $2.32 | 15.8% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 17 | $3.92 | 8.30% | $0.33 | $1.32 | 9.0% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 1 | $337.16 | 0.08% | $0.27 | $1.08 | 7.3% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.00 | 20.00% | $0.20 | $0.80 | 5.4% |
| Total | $3.68 | $14.72 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Phantasmal Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Charizard X ex - 125/094
#125/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$829.83
+$8.28 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 130/094
#130/094 · MHR
1 in 1259 packs
$337.16
+$1.08 EV
Meowth
#106/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$18.74
+$0.64 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 109/094
#109/094 · UR
1 in 205 packs
$32.99
+$0.64 EV
Piplup - 098/094
#098/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$14.38
+$0.48 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 013/094
#013/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$3.34
+$0.28 EV
Dawn - 129/094
#129/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$29.13
+$0.28 EV
Mega Sharpedo ex - 127/094
#127/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$25.86
+$0.24 EV
Mega Gengar ex
#056/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$2.42
+$0.20 EV
Wigglytuff - 105/094
#105/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$5.15
+$0.16 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Phantasmal-Flames-Pull-Rates/9abae60d-b7fb-448f-874e-176f78d6a6ca/, https://screenrant.com/pokemon-tcg-phantasmal-flames-mega-charizard-ex-sir-pull-rate/, https://tcgprotectors.com/blogs/pokemon-blog/phantasmal-flames-pull-rates-10000-packs-analyzed-hits-or-misses). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($56.24) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($56.24) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($12.59) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Box | $394.47 | $132.48 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames ETB | $122.17 | $35.41 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames PC ETB | $311.77 | $87.22 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Bundle | $64.51 | $22.08 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames 3 Pack Blister | $30.67 | $11.54 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister | $9.87 | $3.93 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster | $10.71 | $3.68 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Art Bundle | $41.18 | $14.72 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack | $9.11 | $3.68 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | Black Bolt | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $32.55 | $15.22 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |