Paldean Fates ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $463.50.
9 packs plus $15.65 in promo value produce $74.42 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−86%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $537.92.
Expected Loss
−$463.50
The average opening result after paying $537.92 sealed.
Open Average
$74.42
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$47.63
Expected range $0.40-$12.66 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $6.53
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 7 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.
$6.53 × 9 packs = $58.77
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$58.77 + $15.65 promos = $74.42
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$74.42 × 0.64 = $47.63
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $74.42 ÷ $537.92 = 13.8% • Cash-out: $47.63 ÷ $537.92 = 8.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $6.53 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 8 | $190.88 | 1.72% | $3.28 | $29.52 | 50.2% |
| Shiny Rare(SHR) | 120 | $8.98 | 25.00% | $2.24 | $20.16 | 34.3% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR) | 12 | $6.01 | 7.70% | $0.46 | $4.14 | 7.0% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 3 | $2.81 | 7.10% | $0.20 | $1.80 | 3.1% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $10.09 | 1.61% | $0.16 | $1.44 | 2.5% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.01 | 13.30% | $0.13 | $1.17 | 2.0% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 5 | $0.92 | 6.70% | $0.06 | $0.54 | 0.9% |
| Total | $6.53 | $58.77 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldean Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew ex - 232/091
#232/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$910.51
+$17.64 EV
Charizard ex - 234/091
#234/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$333.81
+$6.48 EV
Gardevoir ex - 233/091
#233/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$189.08
+$3.69 EV
Mew ex - 216/091
#216/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$39.06
+$2.25 EV
Pikachu - 131/091
#131/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$87.96
+$1.62 EV
Snorlax
#202/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$67.01
+$1.26 EV
Mimikyu -160/091
#160/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$56.62
+$1.08 EV
Pawmi - 226/091
#226/091 · IR
1 in 42 packs
$3.22
+$0.72 EV
Wugtrio - 224/091
#224/091 · IR
1 in 42 packs
$3.01
+$0.63 EV
Charizard ex - 054/091
#054/091 · RR
1 in 75 packs
$4.55
+$0.54 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldean-Fates-Pull-Rates/23de3e93-0d0f-4ae0-abc4-13664f3001a3/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldean-fates-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/2024/01/paldean-fates-pull-rates-revealed). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($537.92) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($537.92) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($15.65) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldean Fates ETB | $537.92 | $74.42 | −86% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates PC ETB | $618.64 | $166.81 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Bundle | $166.08 | $39.18 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection | $57.95 | $20.34 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Mini Tin | $44.26 | $13.06 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tin | $113.52 | $33.65 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Premium Collection | $188.09 | $48.71 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Pack | $26.55 | $6.53 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |