Paldean Fates ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $340.29.
9 packs plus $13.12 in promo value produce $61.72 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−85%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $402.01.
Expected Loss
−$340.29
The average opening result after paying $402.01 sealed.
Open Average
$61.72
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$39.50
Expected range $0.21-$10.59 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $5.40
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 7 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.
$5.40 × 9 packs = $48.60
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$48.60 + $13.12 promos = $61.72
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$61.72 × 0.64 = $39.50
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $61.72 ÷ $402.01 = 15.3% • Cash-out: $39.50 ÷ $402.01 = 9.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $5.40 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 8 | $167.75 | 1.72% | $2.89 | $26.01 | 53.5% |
| Shiny Rare(SHR) | 120 | $6.55 | 25.00% | $1.64 | $14.76 | 30.4% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR) | 12 | $5.16 | 7.70% | $0.40 | $3.60 | 7.4% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 3 | $2.01 | 7.10% | $0.14 | $1.26 | 2.6% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $8.91 | 1.61% | $0.14 | $1.26 | 2.6% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.00 | 13.30% | $0.13 | $1.17 | 2.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 5 | $0.92 | 6.70% | $0.06 | $0.54 | 1.1% |
| Total | $5.40 | $48.60 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldean Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew ex - 232/091
#232/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$822.98
+$15.93 EV
Charizard ex - 234/091
#234/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$285.93
+$5.49 EV
Gardevoir ex - 233/091
#233/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$148.74
+$2.88 EV
Mew ex - 216/091
#216/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$34.14
+$1.98 EV
Pikachu - 131/091
#131/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$63.21
+$1.17 EV
Snorlax
#202/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$57.88
+$1.08 EV
Mimikyu -160/091
#160/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$48.65
+$0.90 EV
Charizard ex - 054/091
#054/091 · RR
1 in 75 packs
$4.25
+$0.54 EV
Gardevoir ex - 217/091
#217/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$8.21
+$0.45 EV
Pawmi - 226/091
#226/091 · IR
1 in 42 packs
$2.27
+$0.45 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldean-Fates-Pull-Rates/23de3e93-0d0f-4ae0-abc4-13664f3001a3/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldean-fates-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/2024/01/paldean-fates-pull-rates-revealed). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($402.01) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($402.01) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($13.12) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldean Fates ETB | $402.01 | $61.72 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates PC ETB | $623.78 | $149.99 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Bundle | $144.74 | $32.40 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection | $46.24 | $16.95 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Mini Tin | $38.32 | $10.80 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tin | $98.02 | $28.00 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Premium Collection | $181.03 | $40.80 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Pack | $19.53 | $5.40 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $641.21 | $316.90 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $293.86 | $145.12 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $229.79 | $110.96 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $149.97 | $71.16 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $158.04 | $65.50 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $148.22 | $60.25 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $481.05 | $189.76 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $89.43 | $35.21 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |