Paldean Fates Premium Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $140.23.
7 packs plus $3.00 in promo value produce $40.80 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−77%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $181.03.
Expected Loss
−$140.23
The average opening result after paying $181.03 sealed.
Open Average
$40.80
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$26.11
Expected range $0.21-$10.59 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $5.40
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 7 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.
$5.40 × 7 packs = $37.80
This product contains 7 booster packs.
$37.80 + $3.00 promos = $40.80
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$40.80 × 0.64 = $26.11
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $40.80 ÷ $181.03 = 22.5% • Cash-out: $26.11 ÷ $181.03 = 14.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $5.40 EV per pack for this 7-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/7pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 8 | $167.75 | 1.72% | $2.89 | $20.23 | 53.5% |
| Shiny Rare(SHR) | 120 | $6.55 | 25.00% | $1.64 | $11.48 | 30.4% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR) | 12 | $5.16 | 7.70% | $0.40 | $2.80 | 7.4% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 3 | $2.01 | 7.10% | $0.14 | $0.98 | 2.6% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $8.91 | 1.61% | $0.14 | $0.98 | 2.6% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.00 | 13.30% | $0.13 | $0.91 | 2.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 5 | $0.92 | 6.70% | $0.06 | $0.42 | 1.1% |
| Total | $5.40 | $37.80 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldean Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew ex - 232/091
#232/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$822.98
+$12.39 EV
Charizard ex - 234/091
#234/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$285.93
+$4.27 EV
Gardevoir ex - 233/091
#233/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$148.74
+$2.24 EV
Mew ex - 216/091
#216/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$34.14
+$1.54 EV
Pikachu - 131/091
#131/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$63.21
+$0.91 EV
Snorlax
#202/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$57.88
+$0.84 EV
Mimikyu -160/091
#160/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$48.65
+$0.70 EV
Charizard ex - 054/091
#054/091 · RR
1 in 75 packs
$4.25
+$0.42 EV
Gardevoir ex - 217/091
#217/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$8.21
+$0.35 EV
Pawmi - 226/091
#226/091 · IR
1 in 42 packs
$2.27
+$0.35 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldean-Fates-Pull-Rates/23de3e93-0d0f-4ae0-abc4-13664f3001a3/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldean-fates-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/2024/01/paldean-fates-pull-rates-revealed). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($181.03) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($181.03) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($3.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldean Fates ETB | $402.01 | $61.72 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates PC ETB | $623.78 | $149.99 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Bundle | $144.74 | $32.40 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection | $46.24 | $16.95 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Mini Tin | $38.32 | $10.80 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tin | $98.02 | $28.00 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Premium Collection | $181.03 | $40.80 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Pack | $19.53 | $5.40 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | Black Bolt | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |