Paldean Fates Tin
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $70.02.
5 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $28.00 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−71%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $98.02.
Expected Loss
−$70.02
The average opening result after paying $98.02 sealed.
Open Average
$28.00
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$17.92
Expected range $0.21-$10.59 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $5.40
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 7 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.
$5.40 × 5 packs = $27.00
This product contains 5 booster packs.
$27.00 + $1.00 promos = $28.00
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$28.00 × 0.64 = $17.92
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $28.00 ÷ $98.02 = 28.6% • Cash-out: $17.92 ÷ $98.02 = 18.3%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $5.40 EV per pack for this 5-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/5pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 8 | $167.75 | 1.72% | $2.89 | $14.45 | 53.5% |
| Shiny Rare(SHR) | 120 | $6.55 | 25.00% | $1.64 | $8.20 | 30.4% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR) | 12 | $5.16 | 7.70% | $0.40 | $2.00 | 7.4% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 3 | $2.01 | 7.10% | $0.14 | $0.70 | 2.6% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $8.91 | 1.61% | $0.14 | $0.70 | 2.6% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.00 | 13.30% | $0.13 | $0.65 | 2.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 5 | $0.92 | 6.70% | $0.06 | $0.30 | 1.1% |
| Total | $5.40 | $27.00 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldean Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew ex - 232/091
#232/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$822.98
+$8.85 EV
Charizard ex - 234/091
#234/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$285.93
+$3.05 EV
Gardevoir ex - 233/091
#233/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$148.74
+$1.60 EV
Mew ex - 216/091
#216/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$34.14
+$1.10 EV
Pikachu - 131/091
#131/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$63.21
+$0.65 EV
Snorlax
#202/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$57.88
+$0.60 EV
Mimikyu -160/091
#160/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$48.65
+$0.50 EV
Charizard ex - 054/091
#054/091 · RR
1 in 75 packs
$4.25
+$0.30 EV
Gardevoir ex - 217/091
#217/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$8.21
+$0.25 EV
Pawmi - 226/091
#226/091 · IR
1 in 42 packs
$2.27
+$0.25 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldean-Fates-Pull-Rates/23de3e93-0d0f-4ae0-abc4-13664f3001a3/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldean-fates-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/2024/01/paldean-fates-pull-rates-revealed). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $26.99. Current sealed price ($98.02) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($98.02) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldean Fates ETB | $402.01 | $61.72 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates PC ETB | $623.78 | $149.99 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Bundle | $144.74 | $32.40 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection | $46.24 | $16.95 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Mini Tin | $38.32 | $10.80 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tin | $98.02 | $28.00 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Premium Collection | $181.03 | $40.80 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Pack | $19.53 | $5.40 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Tins Across Sets
See how this tin stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Tin | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascended Heroes Mini Tin | Ascended Heroes | $22.98 | $13.88 | −40% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Mini Tin | Black Bolt | $19.30 | $9.20 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Mini Tin | Pokemon 151 | $44.33 | $19.82 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin | Shrouded Fable | $19.97 | $7.46 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Charizard Tin (Y) | Multi-Set Products | $35.55 | $12.54 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Charizard Tin (X) | Multi-Set Products | $36.75 | $12.54 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Pokemon GO Tin | Pokemon GO | $56.48 | $15.20 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin | Pokemon GO | $26.67 | $7.10 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |