Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $37.10.
4 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $15.88 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−70%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $52.98.
Expected Loss
−$37.10
The average opening result after paying $52.98 sealed.
Open Average
$15.88
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$10.16
Expected range $1.97-$5.47 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Daily sealed tracking started. Chart appears after two refreshes.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.72
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$3.72 × 4 packs = $14.88
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$14.88 + $1.00 promos = $15.88
Promo value uses static estimate.
$15.88 × 0.64 = $10.16
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $15.88 ÷ $52.98 = 30.0% • Cash-out: $10.16 ÷ $52.98 = 19.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.72 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 6 | $122.64 | 1.11% | $1.36 | $5.44 | 36.6% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 11 | $11.55 | 11.10% | $1.28 | $5.12 | 34.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 18 | $6.98 | 8.33% | $0.58 | $2.32 | 15.6% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 1 | $329.01 | 0.09% | $0.30 | $1.20 | 8.1% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.00 | 20.00% | $0.20 | $0.80 | 5.4% |
| Total | $3.72 | $14.88 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Chaos Rising, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Greninja ex - 116/086
#116/086 · SIR
1 in 541 packs
$420.79
+$3.12 EV
Mega Greninja ex - 122/086
#122/086 · MHR
1 in 1099 packs
$329.01
+$1.20 EV
Froakie - 088/086
#088/086 · IR
1 in 99 packs
$23.63
+$0.96 EV
Frogadier - 089/086
#089/086 · IR
1 in 99 packs
$20.00
+$0.80 EV
Xerneas - 091/086
#091/086 · IR
1 in 99 packs
$19.91
+$0.80 EV
Cinccino ex - 119/086
#119/086 · SIR
1 in 541 packs
$91.31
+$0.68 EV
Mega Dragalge ex - 118/086
#118/086 · SIR
1 in 541 packs
$75.29
+$0.56 EV
Mega Greninja ex - 100/086
#100/086 · UR
1 in 216 packs
$26.30
+$0.48 EV
Mega Greninja ex - 022/086
#022/086 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$4.00
+$0.32 EV
Special Red Card - 113/086
#113/086 · UR
1 in 216 packs
$12.25
+$0.24 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (Community pull-rate infographic (5000+ packs sample) — Mega Evolution Chaos Rising). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($52.98) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($52.98) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on static estimate.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Booster Box | $241.12 | $133.92 | −44% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | $89.25 | $34.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising PC ETB | $204.23 | $42.92 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Bundle | $47.22 | $22.32 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box | $52.98 | $15.88 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising 3 Pack Blister | $24.53 | $11.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister | $10.50 | $3.97 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Pawmot Line | $21.03 | $11.66 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Flygon Line | $21.09 | $11.66 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster | $7.86 | $3.72 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack Art Bundle | $39.63 | $14.88 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack | $6.91 | $3.72 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.46 | −15% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.57 | $23.70 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.53 | $23.04 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.36 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $31.61 | $16.36 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.65 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Knock Out [Suicune] | Multi-Set Products | $13.54 | $6.46 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $38.19 | $17.94 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |