Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $6.53.
1 packs plus $0.25 in promo value produce $3.97 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−62%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $10.50.
Expected Loss
−$6.53
The average opening result after paying $10.50 sealed.
Open Average
$3.97
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$2.54
Expected range $1.97-$5.47 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Daily sealed tracking started. Chart appears after two refreshes.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.72
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$3.72 × 1 packs = $3.72
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$3.72 + $0.25 promos = $3.97
Promo value uses static estimate.
$3.97 × 0.64 = $2.54
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $3.97 ÷ $10.50 = 37.8% • Cash-out: $2.54 ÷ $10.50 = 24.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.72 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 6 | $122.64 | 1.11% | $1.36 | $1.36 | 36.6% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 11 | $11.55 | 11.10% | $1.28 | $1.28 | 34.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 18 | $6.98 | 8.33% | $0.58 | $0.58 | 15.6% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 1 | $329.01 | 0.09% | $0.30 | $0.30 | 8.1% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.00 | 20.00% | $0.20 | $0.20 | 5.4% |
| Total | $3.72 | $3.72 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Chaos Rising, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Greninja ex - 116/086
#116/086 · SIR
1 in 541 packs
$420.79
+$0.78 EV
Mega Greninja ex - 122/086
#122/086 · MHR
1 in 1099 packs
$329.01
+$0.30 EV
Froakie - 088/086
#088/086 · IR
1 in 99 packs
$23.63
+$0.24 EV
Frogadier - 089/086
#089/086 · IR
1 in 99 packs
$20.00
+$0.20 EV
Xerneas - 091/086
#091/086 · IR
1 in 99 packs
$19.91
+$0.20 EV
Cinccino ex - 119/086
#119/086 · SIR
1 in 541 packs
$91.31
+$0.17 EV
Mega Dragalge ex - 118/086
#118/086 · SIR
1 in 541 packs
$75.29
+$0.14 EV
Mega Greninja ex - 100/086
#100/086 · UR
1 in 216 packs
$26.30
+$0.12 EV
Mega Greninja ex - 022/086
#022/086 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$4.00
+$0.08 EV
Special Red Card - 113/086
#113/086 · UR
1 in 216 packs
$12.25
+$0.06 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (Community pull-rate infographic (5000+ packs sample) — Mega Evolution Chaos Rising). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $5.49. Current sealed price ($10.50) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($10.50) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($0.25) is based on static estimate.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Booster Box | $241.12 | $133.92 | −44% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | $89.25 | $34.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising PC ETB | $204.23 | $42.92 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Bundle | $47.22 | $22.32 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box | $52.98 | $15.88 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising 3 Pack Blister | $24.53 | $11.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister | $10.50 | $3.97 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Pawmot Line | $21.03 | $11.66 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Flygon Line | $21.09 | $11.66 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster | $7.86 | $3.72 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack Art Bundle | $39.63 | $14.88 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack | $6.91 | $3.72 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Packs Across Sets
See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Pack | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascended Heroes Booster Pack | Ascended Heroes | $14.85 | $7.68 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable 3 Pack Blister | Shrouded Fable | $32.04 | $13.52 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Booster Pack | Perfect Order | $6.40 | $2.67 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Temporal Forces 3 Pack Blister | Temporal Forces | $26.85 | $11.15 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Pack | Lost Origin | $16.37 | $6.72 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | Black Bolt | $14.03 | $5.73 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Booster Pack | White Flare | $13.08 | $5.27 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Sleeved Booster | Perfect Order | $6.63 | $2.67 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |