Black Bolt ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $80.86.
9 packs plus $2.16 in promo value produce $54.72 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−60%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $135.58.
Expected Loss
−$80.86
The average opening result after paying $135.58 sealed.
Open Average
$54.72
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$35.02
Expected range $1.45-$10.23 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $5.84
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 700 pack openings.
$5.84 × 9 packs = $52.56
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$52.56 + $2.16 promos = $54.72
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$54.72 × 0.64 = $35.02
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $54.72 ÷ $135.58 = 40.4% • Cash-out: $35.02 ÷ $135.58 = 25.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $5.84 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 69 | $21.67 | 16.40% | $3.55 | $31.95 | 60.8% |
| Black White Rare(BWR) | 2 | $532.20 | 0.20% | $1.06 | $9.54 | 18.2% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 7 | $80.02 | 1.25% | $1.00 | $9.00 | 17.1% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $0.56 | 21.10% | $0.12 | $1.08 | 2.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8 | $1.96 | 5.80% | $0.11 | $0.99 | 1.9% |
| Total | $5.84 | $52.56 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Black Bolt, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Victini - 171/086
#171/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$554.58
+$4.95 EV
Zekrom ex - 172/086
#172/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$509.81
+$4.59 EV
Seismitoad - 105/086
#105/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$205.23
+$4.41 EV
Zekrom ex - 166/086
#166/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$254.81
+$4.14 EV
Haxorus - 147/086
#147/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$70.96
+$1.53 EV
Kyurem ex - 165/086
#165/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$79.04
+$1.26 EV
Dwebble - 129/086
#129/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$55.96
+$1.17 EV
N's Plan - 170/086
#170/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$64.27
+$0.99 EV
Zekrom ex - 158/086
#158/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$4.70
+$0.27 EV
N's Plan - 163/086
#163/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$3.85
+$0.27 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 700 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Black-Bolt-and-White-Flare-Pull-Rates/bac92199-a2a7-4668-b4a4-2647a111776f/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-odds/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/07/20/black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-sets/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($135.58) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($135.58) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.16) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Bolt ETB | $135.58 | $54.72 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt PC ETB | $299.34 | $91.25 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Bundle | $72.70 | $35.04 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Binder Collection | $65.04 | $24.36 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Poster Collection | $69.05 | $18.52 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | $66.65 | $31.20 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Mini Tin | $21.22 | $11.68 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | $14.04 | $5.84 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |