Black Bolt ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $75.15.
9 packs plus $1.82 in promo value produce $43.22 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−63%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $118.37.
Expected Loss
−$75.15
The average opening result after paying $118.37 sealed.
Open Average
$43.22
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$27.66
Expected range $0.94-$8.26 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $4.60
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 700 pack openings.
$4.60 × 9 packs = $41.40
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$41.40 + $1.82 promos = $43.22
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$43.22 × 0.64 = $27.66
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $43.22 ÷ $118.37 = 36.5% • Cash-out: $27.66 ÷ $118.37 = 23.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.60 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 69 | $16.03 | 16.40% | $2.63 | $23.67 | 57.2% |
| Black White Rare(BWR) | 2 | $446.63 | 0.20% | $0.89 | $8.01 | 19.3% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 7 | $68.18 | 1.25% | $0.85 | $7.65 | 18.5% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $0.57 | 21.10% | $0.12 | $1.08 | 2.6% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8 | $1.93 | 5.80% | $0.11 | $0.99 | 2.4% |
| Total | $4.60 | $41.40 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Black Bolt, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Victini - 171/086
#171/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$469.01
+$4.23 EV
Seismitoad - 105/086
#105/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$178.32
+$3.78 EV
Zekrom ex - 172/086
#172/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$424.24
+$3.78 EV
Zekrom ex - 166/086
#166/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$206.70
+$3.33 EV
Haxorus - 147/086
#147/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$54.42
+$1.17 EV
Kyurem ex - 165/086
#165/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$67.66
+$1.08 EV
N's Plan - 170/086
#170/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$60.32
+$0.99 EV
Krookodile - 137/086
#137/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$43.44
+$0.90 EV
Genesect ex
#067/086 · RR
1 in 28 packs
$0.80
+$0.27 EV
Zekrom ex - 158/086
#158/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$3.86
+$0.27 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 700 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Black-Bolt-and-White-Flare-Pull-Rates/bac92199-a2a7-4668-b4a4-2647a111776f/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-odds/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/07/20/black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-sets/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($118.37) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($118.37) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.82) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Bolt ETB | $118.37 | $43.22 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt PC ETB | $279.38 | $73.72 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Bundle | $64.40 | $27.60 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Binder Collection | $50.94 | $19.40 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | $31.37 | $14.55 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Poster Collection | $56.18 | $14.80 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Mini Tin | $19.30 | $9.20 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | $125.31 | $55.03 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | $10.21 | $4.60 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $641.21 | $316.90 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $293.86 | $145.12 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $229.79 | $110.96 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $149.97 | $71.16 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $158.04 | $65.50 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $148.22 | $60.25 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $481.05 | $189.76 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $89.43 | $35.21 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |