Shrouded Fable ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $54.22.
9 packs plus $1.64 in promo value produce $35.21 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−61%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $89.43.
Expected Loss
−$54.22
The average opening result after paying $89.43 sealed.
Open Average
$35.21
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$22.53
Expected range $2.31-$5.15 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.73
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 3,000 pack openings.
$3.73 × 9 packs = $33.57
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$33.57 + $1.64 promos = $35.21
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$35.21 × 0.64 = $22.53
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $35.21 ÷ $89.43 = 39.4% • Cash-out: $22.53 ÷ $89.43 = 25.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.73 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 15 | $27.53 | 8.50% | $2.34 | $21.06 | 62.7% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $28.62 | 1.50% | $0.43 | $3.87 | 11.5% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 10 | $5.86 | 6.50% | $0.38 | $3.42 | 10.2% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $2.04 | 16.70% | $0.34 | $3.06 | 9.1% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 5 | $29.76 | 0.70% | $0.21 | $1.89 | 5.6% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 3 | $0.64 | 5.00% | $0.03 | $0.27 | 0.8% |
| Total | $3.73 | $33.57 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shrouded Fable, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Duskull - 068/064
#068/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$53.83
+$2.79 EV
Persian - 078/064
#078/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$50.26
+$2.52 EV
Dusclops - 069/064
#069/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$45.81
+$2.34 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 092/064
#092/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$46.98
+$1.26 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 038/064
#038/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$4.82
+$1.17 EV
Pecharunt ex - 039/064
#039/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$4.63
+$1.17 EV
Cassiopeia - 094/064
#094/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$38.59
+$1.08 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 084/064
#084/064 · UR
1 in 154 packs
$14.56
+$0.81 EV
Basic Darkness Energy
#098/064 · HR
1 in 714 packs
$58.56
+$0.72 EV
Xerosic's Machinations - 089/064
#089/064 · UR
1 in 154 packs
$10.56
+$0.63 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 3,000 pack openings (https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/24/shrouded-fable-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-shrouded-fable-booster-bundle). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($89.43) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($89.43) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.64) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrouded Fable ETB | $89.43 | $35.21 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | $148.22 | $60.25 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle | $48.01 | $22.38 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingdra ex Special Illustration Collection | $124.53 | $25.38 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Greninja ex Special Illustration Collection | $138.40 | $25.38 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable 3 Pack Blister | $32.22 | $11.69 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin | $19.97 | $7.46 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Pack | $8.84 | $3.73 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $641.21 | $316.90 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $293.86 | $145.12 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $229.79 | $110.96 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $149.97 | $71.16 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $158.04 | $65.50 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $481.05 | $189.76 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $187.52 | $73.05 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution ETB | Mega Evolution | $89.41 | $34.33 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |