Shrouded Fable ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $90.28.
9 packs plus $1.72 in promo value produce $40.69 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−69%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $130.97.
Expected Loss
−$90.28
The average opening result after paying $130.97 sealed.
Open Average
$40.69
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$26.04
Expected range $2.64-$6.02 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $4.33
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 3,000 pack openings.
$4.33 × 9 packs = $38.97
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$38.97 + $1.72 promos = $40.69
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$40.69 × 0.64 = $26.04
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $40.69 ÷ $130.97 = 31.1% • Cash-out: $26.04 ÷ $130.97 = 19.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.33 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 15 | $34.11 | 8.50% | $2.90 | $26.10 | 67.0% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $30.48 | 1.50% | $0.46 | $4.14 | 10.6% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 10 | $5.87 | 6.50% | $0.38 | $3.42 | 8.8% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $1.96 | 16.70% | $0.33 | $2.97 | 7.6% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 5 | $33.27 | 0.70% | $0.23 | $2.07 | 5.3% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 3 | $0.67 | 5.00% | $0.03 | $0.27 | 0.7% |
| Total | $4.33 | $38.97 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shrouded Fable, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Persian - 078/064
#078/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$73.96
+$3.78 EV
Duskull - 068/064
#068/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$57.59
+$2.97 EV
Horsea - 067/064
#067/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$51.56
+$2.61 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 092/064
#092/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$45.86
+$1.26 EV
Pecharunt ex - 039/064
#039/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$4.82
+$1.17 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 038/064
#038/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$4.31
+$1.08 EV
Cassiopeia - 094/064
#094/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$40.98
+$1.08 EV
Basic Darkness Energy
#098/064 · HR
1 in 714 packs
$67.45
+$0.81 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 084/064
#084/064 · UR
1 in 154 packs
$12.80
+$0.72 EV
Xerosic's Machinations - 089/064
#089/064 · UR
1 in 154 packs
$12.49
+$0.72 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 3,000 pack openings (https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/24/shrouded-fable-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-shrouded-fable-booster-bundle). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($130.97) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($130.97) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.72) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrouded Fable ETB | $130.97 | $40.69 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle | $60.06 | $25.98 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingdra ex Special Illustration Collection | $153.81 | $28.98 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Greninja ex Special Illustration Collection | $162.46 | $28.98 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable 3 Pack Blister | $32.04 | $13.49 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin | $19.93 | $8.66 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Pack | $11.08 | $4.33 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved PC ETB | Paldea Evolved | $564.05 | $227.94 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |