Shrouded Fable Kingdra ex Special Illustration Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $124.83.
6 packs plus $3.00 in promo value produce $28.98 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−81%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $153.81.
Expected Loss
−$124.83
The average opening result after paying $153.81 sealed.
Open Average
$28.98
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$18.55
Expected range $2.64-$6.02 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $4.33
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 3,000 pack openings.
$4.33 × 6 packs = $25.98
This product contains 6 booster packs.
$25.98 + $3.00 promos = $28.98
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$28.98 × 0.64 = $18.55
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $28.98 ÷ $153.81 = 18.8% • Cash-out: $18.55 ÷ $153.81 = 12.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.33 EV per pack for this 6-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/6pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 15 | $34.11 | 8.50% | $2.90 | $17.40 | 67.0% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $30.48 | 1.50% | $0.46 | $2.76 | 10.6% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 10 | $5.87 | 6.50% | $0.38 | $2.28 | 8.8% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $1.96 | 16.70% | $0.33 | $1.98 | 7.6% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 5 | $33.27 | 0.70% | $0.23 | $1.38 | 5.3% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 3 | $0.67 | 5.00% | $0.03 | $0.18 | 0.7% |
| Total | $4.33 | $25.98 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shrouded Fable, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Persian - 078/064
#078/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$73.96
+$2.52 EV
Duskull - 068/064
#068/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$57.59
+$1.98 EV
Horsea - 067/064
#067/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$51.56
+$1.74 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 092/064
#092/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$45.86
+$0.84 EV
Pecharunt ex - 039/064
#039/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$4.82
+$0.78 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 038/064
#038/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$4.31
+$0.72 EV
Cassiopeia - 094/064
#094/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$40.98
+$0.72 EV
Basic Darkness Energy
#098/064 · HR
1 in 714 packs
$67.45
+$0.54 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 084/064
#084/064 · UR
1 in 154 packs
$12.80
+$0.48 EV
Xerosic's Machinations - 089/064
#089/064 · UR
1 in 154 packs
$12.49
+$0.48 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 3,000 pack openings (https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/24/shrouded-fable-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-shrouded-fable-booster-bundle). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $29.99. Current sealed price ($153.81) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($153.81) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($3.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrouded Fable ETB | $130.97 | $40.69 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle | $60.06 | $25.98 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingdra ex Special Illustration Collection | $153.81 | $28.98 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Greninja ex Special Illustration Collection | $162.46 | $28.98 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable 3 Pack Blister | $32.04 | $13.49 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin | $19.93 | $8.66 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Pack | $11.08 | $4.33 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Knock Out [Suicune] | Multi-Set Products | $13.54 | $6.49 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |