Shrouded Fable Kingdra ex Special Illustration Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $99.15.
6 packs plus $3.00 in promo value produce $25.38 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−80%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $124.53.
Expected Loss
−$99.15
The average opening result after paying $124.53 sealed.
Open Average
$25.38
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$16.24
Expected range $2.31-$5.15 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.73
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 3,000 pack openings.
$3.73 × 6 packs = $22.38
This product contains 6 booster packs.
$22.38 + $3.00 promos = $25.38
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$25.38 × 0.64 = $16.24
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $25.38 ÷ $124.53 = 20.4% • Cash-out: $16.24 ÷ $124.53 = 13.0%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.73 EV per pack for this 6-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/6pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 15 | $27.53 | 8.50% | $2.34 | $14.04 | 62.7% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $28.62 | 1.50% | $0.43 | $2.58 | 11.5% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 10 | $5.86 | 6.50% | $0.38 | $2.28 | 10.2% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $2.04 | 16.70% | $0.34 | $2.04 | 9.1% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 5 | $29.76 | 0.70% | $0.21 | $1.26 | 5.6% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 3 | $0.64 | 5.00% | $0.03 | $0.18 | 0.8% |
| Total | $3.73 | $22.38 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shrouded Fable, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Duskull - 068/064
#068/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$53.83
+$1.86 EV
Persian - 078/064
#078/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$50.26
+$1.68 EV
Dusclops - 069/064
#069/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$45.81
+$1.56 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 092/064
#092/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$46.98
+$0.84 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 038/064
#038/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$4.82
+$0.78 EV
Pecharunt ex - 039/064
#039/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$4.63
+$0.78 EV
Cassiopeia - 094/064
#094/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$38.59
+$0.72 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 084/064
#084/064 · UR
1 in 154 packs
$14.56
+$0.54 EV
Basic Darkness Energy
#098/064 · HR
1 in 714 packs
$58.56
+$0.48 EV
Xerosic's Machinations - 089/064
#089/064 · UR
1 in 154 packs
$10.56
+$0.42 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 3,000 pack openings (https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/24/shrouded-fable-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-shrouded-fable-booster-bundle). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $29.99. Current sealed price ($124.53) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($124.53) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($3.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrouded Fable ETB | $89.43 | $35.21 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | $148.22 | $60.25 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle | $48.01 | $22.38 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingdra ex Special Illustration Collection | $124.53 | $25.38 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Greninja ex Special Illustration Collection | $138.40 | $25.38 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable 3 Pack Blister | $32.22 | $11.69 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin | $19.97 | $7.46 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Pack | $8.84 | $3.73 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | Black Bolt | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $32.55 | $15.22 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |