Paldea Evolved ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $142.31.
9 packs plus $22.83 in promo value produce $62.07 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−70%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $204.38.
Expected Loss
−$142.31
The average opening result after paying $204.38 sealed.
Open Average
$62.07
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$39.72
Expected range $0.00-$9.55 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $4.36
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$4.36 × 9 packs = $39.24
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$39.24 + $22.83 promos = $62.07
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$62.07 × 0.64 = $39.72
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $62.07 ÷ $204.38 = 30.4% • Cash-out: $39.72 ÷ $204.38 = 19.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.36 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 36 | $39.24 | 7.70% | $3.02 | $27.18 | 69.3% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 15 | $26.43 | 3.10% | $0.82 | $7.38 | 18.8% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 26 | $3.88 | 6.70% | $0.26 | $2.34 | 6.0% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 17 | $0.95 | 14.30% | $0.14 | $1.26 | 3.2% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 9 | $6.92 | 1.80% | $0.12 | $1.08 | 2.8% |
| Total | $4.36 | $39.24 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldea Evolved, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Magikarp - 203/193
#203/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$401.95
+$7.74 EV
Raichu - 211/193
#211/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$118.94
+$2.25 EV
Maushold - 226/193
#226/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$103.82
+$1.98 EV
Iono - 269/193
#269/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$64.37
+$1.17 EV
Tinkaton ex - 262/193
#262/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$59.11
+$1.08 EV
Chi-Yu ex - 259/193
#259/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$49.93
+$0.90 EV
Dedenne ex - 239/193
#239/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$15.47
+$0.36 EV
Pikachu ex
#063/193 · RR
1 in 119 packs
$3.64
+$0.27 EV
Boss's Orders - 248/193
#248/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$11.38
+$0.27 EV
Iono - 254/193
#254/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$11.04
+$0.27 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldea-Evolved-Pull-Rates/1b7d3e70-9542-4a50-8692-1661e2316521/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldea-evolved-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/11/paldea-evolved-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($204.38) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($204.38) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($22.83) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldea Evolved Booster Box | $503.62 | $156.96 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved ETB | $204.38 | $62.07 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved PC ETB | $564.05 | $227.94 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Booster Bundle | $115.11 | $26.16 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved 3 Pack Blister | $35.91 | $13.58 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Single Pack Blister | $14.99 | $4.61 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Build & Battle Box | $59.28 | $20.53 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Sleeved Booster | $14.06 | $4.36 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Booster Pack | $14.17 | $4.36 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |