Paldea Evolved Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $37.47.
4 packs plus $2.46 in promo value produce $16.98 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−69%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $54.45.
Expected Loss
−$37.47
The average opening result after paying $54.45 sealed.
Open Average
$16.98
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$10.87
Expected range $0.00-$8.22 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.63
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$3.63 × 4 packs = $14.52
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$14.52 + $2.46 promos = $16.98
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$16.98 × 0.64 = $10.87
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $16.98 ÷ $54.45 = 31.2% • Cash-out: $10.87 ÷ $54.45 = 20.0%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.63 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 36 | $31.74 | 7.70% | $2.44 | $9.76 | 67.2% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 15 | $22.59 | 3.10% | $0.70 | $2.80 | 19.3% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 26 | $3.67 | 6.70% | $0.25 | $1.00 | 6.9% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 17 | $0.94 | 14.30% | $0.13 | $0.52 | 3.6% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 9 | $5.89 | 1.80% | $0.11 | $0.44 | 3.0% |
| Total | $3.63 | $14.52 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldea Evolved, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Magikarp - 203/193
#203/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$358.07
+$3.08 EV
Raichu - 211/193
#211/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$97.49
+$0.84 EV
Maushold - 226/193
#226/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$76.75
+$0.64 EV
Iono - 269/193
#269/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$54.10
+$0.44 EV
Tinkaton ex - 262/193
#262/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$48.62
+$0.40 EV
Chi-Yu ex - 259/193
#259/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$47.16
+$0.40 EV
Dedenne ex - 239/193
#239/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$16.08
+$0.16 EV
Pikachu ex
#063/193 · RR
1 in 119 packs
$3.40
+$0.12 EV
Boss's Orders - 248/193
#248/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$11.99
+$0.12 EV
Iono - 254/193
#254/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$10.58
+$0.12 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldea-Evolved-Pull-Rates/1b7d3e70-9542-4a50-8692-1661e2316521/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldea-evolved-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/11/paldea-evolved-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($54.45) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($54.45) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.46) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldea Evolved Booster Box | $447.78 | $130.68 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved ETB | $175.94 | $53.19 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved PC ETB | $534.38 | $185.94 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Booster Bundle | $105.08 | $21.78 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved 3 Pack Blister | $33.58 | $11.39 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Single Pack Blister | $13.85 | $3.88 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Build & Battle Box | $54.45 | $16.98 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Sleeved Booster | $13.99 | $3.63 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Booster Pack | $11.34 | $3.63 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | Black Bolt | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |