Paldea Evolved Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $38.75.
4 packs plus $3.09 in promo value produce $20.53 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−65%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $59.28.
Expected Loss
−$38.75
The average opening result after paying $59.28 sealed.
Open Average
$20.53
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$13.14
Expected range $0.00-$9.55 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $4.36
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$4.36 × 4 packs = $17.44
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$17.44 + $3.09 promos = $20.53
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$20.53 × 0.64 = $13.14
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $20.53 ÷ $59.28 = 34.6% • Cash-out: $13.14 ÷ $59.28 = 22.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.36 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 36 | $39.24 | 7.70% | $3.02 | $12.08 | 69.3% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 15 | $26.43 | 3.10% | $0.82 | $3.28 | 18.8% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 26 | $3.88 | 6.70% | $0.26 | $1.04 | 6.0% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 17 | $0.95 | 14.30% | $0.14 | $0.56 | 3.2% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 9 | $6.92 | 1.80% | $0.12 | $0.48 | 2.8% |
| Total | $4.36 | $17.44 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldea Evolved, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Magikarp - 203/193
#203/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$401.95
+$3.44 EV
Raichu - 211/193
#211/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$118.94
+$1.00 EV
Maushold - 226/193
#226/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$103.82
+$0.88 EV
Iono - 269/193
#269/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$64.37
+$0.52 EV
Tinkaton ex - 262/193
#262/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$59.11
+$0.48 EV
Chi-Yu ex - 259/193
#259/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$49.93
+$0.40 EV
Dedenne ex - 239/193
#239/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$15.47
+$0.16 EV
Pikachu ex
#063/193 · RR
1 in 119 packs
$3.64
+$0.12 EV
Boss's Orders - 248/193
#248/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$11.38
+$0.12 EV
Iono - 254/193
#254/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$11.04
+$0.12 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldea-Evolved-Pull-Rates/1b7d3e70-9542-4a50-8692-1661e2316521/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldea-evolved-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/11/paldea-evolved-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($59.28) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($59.28) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($3.09) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldea Evolved Booster Box | $503.62 | $156.96 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved ETB | $204.38 | $62.07 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved PC ETB | $564.05 | $227.94 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Booster Bundle | $115.11 | $26.16 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved 3 Pack Blister | $35.91 | $13.58 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Single Pack Blister | $14.99 | $4.61 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Build & Battle Box | $59.28 | $20.53 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Sleeved Booster | $14.06 | $4.36 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Booster Pack | $14.17 | $4.36 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |