Obsidian Flames ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $204.23.
9 packs plus $73.14 in promo value produce $101.22 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−67%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $305.45.
Expected Loss
−$204.23
The average opening result after paying $305.45 sealed.
Open Average
$101.22
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$64.78
Expected range $1.13-$5.11 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.12
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$3.12 × 9 packs = $28.08
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$28.08 + $73.14 promos = $101.22
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$101.22 × 0.64 = $64.78
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $101.22 ÷ $305.45 = 33.1% • Cash-out: $64.78 ÷ $305.45 = 21.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.12 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 12 | $18.73 | 7.70% | $1.44 | $12.96 | 46.2% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 6 | $30.10 | 3.10% | $0.93 | $8.37 | 29.8% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 3 | $16.83 | 1.90% | $0.32 | $2.88 | 10.3% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 12 | $3.52 | 6.70% | $0.24 | $2.16 | 7.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 21 | $1.30 | 14.30% | $0.19 | $1.71 | 6.1% |
| Total | $3.12 | $28.08 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Obsidian Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard ex - 223/197
#223/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$139.09
+$6.48 EV
Ninetales -199/197
#199/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$51.69
+$2.97 EV
Cleffa - 202/197
#202/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$44.88
+$2.61 EV
Charizard ex - 228/197
#228/197 · HR
1 in 158 packs
$44.71
+$2.52 EV
Gloom - 198/197
#198/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$27.48
+$1.62 EV
Charizard ex - 215/197
#215/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$22.06
+$1.08 EV
Pidgeot ex - 225/197
#225/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$23.50
+$1.08 EV
Charizard ex - 125/197
#125/197 · RR
1 in 147 packs
$6.06
+$0.36 EV
Tyranitar ex - 211/197
#211/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$5.49
+$0.27 EV
Eiscue ex - 222/197
#222/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$6.35
+$0.27 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Obsidian-Flames-Pull-Rates/e2a66999-a7b5-4621-9765-c9a132e04bd2/, https://www.digitaltq.com/obsidian-flames-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/sv3/obsidian-flames/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($305.45) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($305.45) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($73.14) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames Booster Box | $373.28 | $112.32 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames ETB | $305.45 | $101.22 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Bundle | $108.26 | $18.72 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames 3 Pack Blister | $33.72 | $9.86 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Single Pack Blister | $11.04 | $3.37 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Build & Battle Box | $51.57 | $18.08 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Sleeved Booster | $12.40 | $3.12 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Pack | $11.78 | $3.12 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved PC ETB | Paldea Evolved | $564.05 | $227.94 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |