Obsidian Flames Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $33.49.
4 packs plus $5.60 in promo value produce $18.08 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−65%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $51.57.
Expected Loss
−$33.49
The average opening result after paying $51.57 sealed.
Open Average
$18.08
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$11.57
Expected range $1.13-$5.11 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.12
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$3.12 × 4 packs = $12.48
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$12.48 + $5.60 promos = $18.08
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$18.08 × 0.64 = $11.57
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $18.08 ÷ $51.57 = 35.1% • Cash-out: $11.57 ÷ $51.57 = 22.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.12 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 12 | $18.73 | 7.70% | $1.44 | $5.76 | 46.2% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 6 | $30.10 | 3.10% | $0.93 | $3.72 | 29.8% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 3 | $16.83 | 1.90% | $0.32 | $1.28 | 10.3% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 12 | $3.52 | 6.70% | $0.24 | $0.96 | 7.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 21 | $1.30 | 14.30% | $0.19 | $0.76 | 6.1% |
| Total | $3.12 | $12.48 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Obsidian Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard ex - 223/197
#223/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$139.09
+$2.88 EV
Ninetales -199/197
#199/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$51.69
+$1.32 EV
Cleffa - 202/197
#202/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$44.88
+$1.16 EV
Charizard ex - 228/197
#228/197 · HR
1 in 158 packs
$44.71
+$1.12 EV
Gloom - 198/197
#198/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$27.48
+$0.72 EV
Charizard ex - 215/197
#215/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$22.06
+$0.48 EV
Pidgeot ex - 225/197
#225/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$23.50
+$0.48 EV
Charizard ex - 125/197
#125/197 · RR
1 in 147 packs
$6.06
+$0.16 EV
Tyranitar ex - 211/197
#211/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$5.49
+$0.12 EV
Eiscue ex - 222/197
#222/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$6.35
+$0.12 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Obsidian-Flames-Pull-Rates/e2a66999-a7b5-4621-9765-c9a132e04bd2/, https://www.digitaltq.com/obsidian-flames-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/sv3/obsidian-flames/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($51.57) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($51.57) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($5.60) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames Booster Box | $373.28 | $112.32 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames ETB | $305.45 | $101.22 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Bundle | $108.26 | $18.72 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames 3 Pack Blister | $33.72 | $9.86 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Single Pack Blister | $11.04 | $3.37 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Build & Battle Box | $51.57 | $18.08 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Sleeved Booster | $12.40 | $3.12 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Pack | $11.78 | $3.12 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |