Obsidian Flames Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $29.37.
4 packs plus $5.28 in promo value produce $16.12 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−65%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $45.49.
Expected Loss
−$29.37
The average opening result after paying $45.49 sealed.
Open Average
$16.12
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$10.32
Expected range $1.03-$4.39 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.71
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.71 × 4 packs = $10.84
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$10.84 + $5.28 promos = $16.12
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$16.12 × 0.64 = $10.32
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $16.12 ÷ $45.49 = 35.4% • Cash-out: $10.32 ÷ $45.49 = 22.7%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.71 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 12 | $15.92 | 7.70% | $1.23 | $4.92 | 45.4% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 6 | $25.28 | 3.10% | $0.78 | $3.12 | 28.8% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 3 | $15.97 | 1.90% | $0.30 | $1.20 | 11.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 12 | $3.31 | 6.70% | $0.22 | $0.88 | 8.1% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 21 | $1.28 | 14.30% | $0.18 | $0.72 | 6.6% |
| Total | $2.71 | $10.84 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Obsidian Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard ex - 223/197
#223/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$114.23
+$2.36 EV
Ninetales -199/197
#199/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$44.49
+$1.16 EV
Cleffa - 202/197
#202/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$40.84
+$1.04 EV
Charizard ex - 228/197
#228/197 · HR
1 in 158 packs
$41.58
+$1.04 EV
Gloom - 198/197
#198/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$22.37
+$0.56 EV
Charizard ex - 215/197
#215/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$20.18
+$0.44 EV
Pidgeot ex - 225/197
#225/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$19.70
+$0.40 EV
Charizard ex - 125/197
#125/197 · RR
1 in 147 packs
$5.49
+$0.16 EV
Tyranitar ex - 211/197
#211/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$5.36
+$0.12 EV
Revavroom ex - 224/197
#224/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$6.01
+$0.12 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Obsidian-Flames-Pull-Rates/e2a66999-a7b5-4621-9765-c9a132e04bd2/, https://www.digitaltq.com/obsidian-flames-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/sv3/obsidian-flames/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($45.49) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($45.49) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($5.28) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames Booster Box | $358.75 | $97.56 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames ETB | $244.68 | $93.04 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | $641.21 | $316.90 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Bundle | $80.20 | $16.26 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames 3 Pack Blister | $30.87 | $8.63 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Single Pack Blister | $10.24 | $2.96 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Build & Battle Box | $45.49 | $16.12 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Sleeved Booster | $12.62 | $2.71 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Pack | $10.65 | $2.71 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | Black Bolt | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |