Brilliant Stars ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $119.32.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $26.28 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−82%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $145.60.
Expected Loss
−$119.32
The average opening result after paying $145.60 sealed.
Open Average
$26.28
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$16.82
Expected range $0.00-$13.51 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.16
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 1,004 pack openings.
$3.16 × 8 packs = $25.28
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$25.28 + $1.00 promos = $26.28
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$26.28 × 0.64 = $16.82
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $26.28 ÷ $145.60 = 18.1% • Cash-out: $16.82 ÷ $145.60 = 11.6%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.16 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 48 | $11.31 | 23.70% | $2.68 | $21.44 | 84.8% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $13.80 | 2.80% | $0.39 | $3.12 | 12.3% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 10 | $0.32 | 26.39% | $0.09 | $0.72 | 2.8% |
| Total | $3.16 | $25.28 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Brilliant Stars, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard V (Alternate Full Art)
#154/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$303.71
+$12.00 EV
Arceus V (Alternate Full Art)
#166/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$53.28
+$2.08 EV
Charizard V (Full Art)
#153/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$31.01
+$1.20 EV
Charizard VSTAR (Secret)
#174/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$75.69
+$1.20 EV
Ultra Ball (Secret)
#186/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$20.00
+$0.32 EV
Arceus VSTAR (Secret) (184)
#184/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$16.19
+$0.24 EV
Lucario
#079/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.63
+$0.16 EV
Boss's Orders
#132/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.47
+$0.08 EV
Moltres
#021/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.38
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,004 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/02/16/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-for-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($145.60) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($145.60) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliant Stars Booster Box | $592.58 | $113.76 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars ETB | $145.60 | $26.28 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars PC ETB | $217.22 | $33.60 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars 3 Pack Blister | $41.29 | $9.98 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box | $46.85 | $14.67 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Sleeved Booster | $15.35 | $3.16 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Booster Pack | $11.41 | $3.16 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $641.21 | $316.90 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $293.86 | $145.12 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $229.79 | $110.96 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $149.97 | $71.16 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $158.04 | $65.50 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $148.22 | $60.25 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $481.05 | $189.76 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $89.43 | $35.21 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |