Brilliant Stars ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $131.29.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $30.52 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−81%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $161.81.
Expected Loss
−$131.29
The average opening result after paying $161.81 sealed.
Open Average
$30.52
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$19.53
Expected range $0.00-$15.70 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.69
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 1,004 pack openings.
$3.69 × 8 packs = $29.52
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$29.52 + $1.00 promos = $30.52
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$30.52 × 0.64 = $19.53
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $30.52 ÷ $161.81 = 18.9% • Cash-out: $19.53 ÷ $161.81 = 12.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.69 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 48 | $13.36 | 23.70% | $3.17 | $25.36 | 85.9% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $15.37 | 2.80% | $0.43 | $3.44 | 11.7% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 10 | $0.35 | 26.39% | $0.09 | $0.72 | 2.4% |
| Total | $3.69 | $29.52 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Brilliant Stars, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard V (Alternate Full Art)
#154/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$351.89
+$13.92 EV
Arceus V (Alternate Full Art)
#166/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$62.43
+$2.48 EV
Charizard V (Full Art)
#153/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$40.40
+$1.60 EV
Charizard VSTAR (Secret)
#174/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$81.02
+$1.28 EV
Ultra Ball (Secret)
#186/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$20.92
+$0.32 EV
Arceus VSTAR (Secret) (184)
#184/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$18.36
+$0.32 EV
Lucario
#079/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.56
+$0.08 EV
Garchomp
#109/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.49
+$0.08 EV
Boss's Orders
#132/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.45
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,004 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/02/16/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-for-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($161.81) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($161.81) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliant Stars Booster Box | $604.64 | $132.84 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars ETB | $161.81 | $30.52 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars PC ETB | $247.51 | $38.90 | −84% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars 3 Pack Blister | $45.62 | $11.57 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box | $53.82 | $17.18 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Sleeved Booster | $63.28 | $3.69 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Booster Pack | $14.15 | $3.69 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $299.90 | $154.30 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $360.43 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising ETB | Chaos Rising | $82.24 | $39.97 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $169.35 | $78.64 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $172.95 | $73.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $277.36 | $116.21 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $165.91 | $68.14 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.09 | $85.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |