Brilliant Stars Sleeved Booster
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $59.54.
1 packs produce $3.74 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−94%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $63.28.
Expected Loss
−$59.54
The average opening result after paying $63.28 sealed.
Open Average
$3.74
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$2.39
Expected range $0.00-$15.96 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.74
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 1,004 pack openings.
$3.74 × 1 packs = $3.74
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$3.74 = $3.74
No promo value applied for this product.
$3.74 × 0.64 = $2.39
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $3.74 ÷ $63.28 = 5.9% • Cash-out: $2.39 ÷ $63.28 = 3.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.74 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 48 | $13.61 | 23.70% | $3.22 | $3.22 | 86.1% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $15.24 | 2.80% | $0.43 | $0.43 | 11.5% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 10 | $0.36 | 26.39% | $0.09 | $0.09 | 2.4% |
| Total | $3.74 | $3.74 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Brilliant Stars, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard V (Alternate Full Art)
#154/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$358.37
+$1.77 EV
Arceus V (Alternate Full Art)
#166/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$62.92
+$0.31 EV
Charizard V (Full Art)
#153/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$41.18
+$0.20 EV
Charizard VSTAR (Secret)
#174/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$80.50
+$0.16 EV
Ultra Ball (Secret)
#186/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$20.19
+$0.04 EV
Arceus VSTAR (Secret) (184)
#184/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$18.41
+$0.04 EV
Lucario
#079/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.59
+$0.02 EV
Boss's Orders
#132/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.48
+$0.01 EV
Garchomp
#109/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.46
+$0.01 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,004 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/02/16/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-for-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $4.49. Current sealed price ($63.28) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($63.28) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliant Stars Booster Box | $611.08 | $134.64 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars ETB | $164.89 | $30.92 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars PC ETB | $248.43 | $39.40 | −84% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars 3 Pack Blister | $46.36 | $11.72 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box | $54.56 | $17.38 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Sleeved Booster | $63.28 | $3.74 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Booster Pack | $14.58 | $3.74 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Packs Across Sets
See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Pack | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Flygon Line | Chaos Rising | $20.21 | $11.78 | −42% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Pawmot Line | Chaos Rising | $20.95 | $11.78 | −44% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Booster Pack | Ascended Heroes | $14.27 | $7.67 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack | Chaos Rising | $7.32 | $3.76 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster | Chaos Rising | $7.82 | $3.76 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | Black Bolt | $13.55 | $6.10 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising 3 Pack Blister | Chaos Rising | $26.55 | $11.78 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Booster Pack | Perfect Order | $6.14 | $2.69 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |