Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $36.64.
4 packs plus $2.42 in promo value produce $17.18 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−68%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $53.82.
Expected Loss
−$36.64
The average opening result after paying $53.82 sealed.
Open Average
$17.18
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$11.00
Expected range $0.00-$15.70 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.69
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 1,004 pack openings.
$3.69 × 4 packs = $14.76
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$14.76 + $2.42 promos = $17.18
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$17.18 × 0.64 = $11.00
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $17.18 ÷ $53.82 = 31.9% • Cash-out: $11.00 ÷ $53.82 = 20.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.69 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 48 | $13.36 | 23.70% | $3.17 | $12.68 | 85.9% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $15.37 | 2.80% | $0.43 | $1.72 | 11.7% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 10 | $0.35 | 26.39% | $0.09 | $0.36 | 2.4% |
| Total | $3.69 | $14.76 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Brilliant Stars, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard V (Alternate Full Art)
#154/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$351.89
+$6.96 EV
Arceus V (Alternate Full Art)
#166/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$62.43
+$1.24 EV
Charizard V (Full Art)
#153/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$40.40
+$0.80 EV
Charizard VSTAR (Secret)
#174/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$81.02
+$0.64 EV
Ultra Ball (Secret)
#186/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$20.92
+$0.16 EV
Arceus VSTAR (Secret) (184)
#184/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$18.36
+$0.16 EV
Lucario
#079/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.56
+$0.04 EV
Garchomp
#109/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.49
+$0.04 EV
Boss's Orders
#132/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.45
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,004 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/02/16/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-for-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($53.82) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($53.82) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.42) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliant Stars Booster Box | $604.64 | $132.84 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars ETB | $161.81 | $30.52 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars PC ETB | $247.51 | $38.90 | −84% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars 3 Pack Blister | $45.62 | $11.57 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box | $53.82 | $17.18 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Sleeved Booster | $63.28 | $3.69 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Booster Pack | $14.15 | $3.69 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |