Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $32.18.
4 packs plus $2.03 in promo value produce $14.67 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−69%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $46.85.
Expected Loss
−$32.18
The average opening result after paying $46.85 sealed.
Open Average
$14.67
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$9.39
Expected range $0.00-$13.51 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.16
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 1,004 pack openings.
$3.16 × 4 packs = $12.64
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$12.64 + $2.03 promos = $14.67
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$14.67 × 0.64 = $9.39
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $14.67 ÷ $46.85 = 31.3% • Cash-out: $9.39 ÷ $46.85 = 20.0%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.16 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 48 | $11.31 | 23.70% | $2.68 | $10.72 | 84.8% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $13.80 | 2.80% | $0.39 | $1.56 | 12.3% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 10 | $0.32 | 26.39% | $0.09 | $0.36 | 2.8% |
| Total | $3.16 | $12.64 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Brilliant Stars, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard V (Alternate Full Art)
#154/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$303.71
+$6.00 EV
Arceus V (Alternate Full Art)
#166/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$53.28
+$1.04 EV
Charizard V (Full Art)
#153/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$31.01
+$0.60 EV
Charizard VSTAR (Secret)
#174/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$75.69
+$0.60 EV
Ultra Ball (Secret)
#186/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$20.00
+$0.16 EV
Arceus VSTAR (Secret) (184)
#184/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$16.19
+$0.12 EV
Lucario
#079/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.63
+$0.08 EV
Boss's Orders
#132/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.47
+$0.04 EV
Moltres
#021/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.38
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,004 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/02/16/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-for-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($46.85) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($46.85) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.03) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliant Stars Booster Box | $592.58 | $113.76 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars ETB | $145.60 | $26.28 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars PC ETB | $217.22 | $33.60 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars 3 Pack Blister | $41.29 | $9.98 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box | $46.85 | $14.67 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Sleeved Booster | $15.35 | $3.16 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Booster Pack | $11.41 | $3.16 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | Black Bolt | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |