Black Bolt Binder Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $31.54.
4 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $19.40 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−62%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $50.94.
Expected Loss
−$31.54
The average opening result after paying $50.94 sealed.
Open Average
$19.40
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$12.42
Expected range $0.94-$8.26 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $4.60
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 700 pack openings.
$4.60 × 4 packs = $18.40
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$18.40 + $1.00 promos = $19.40
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$19.40 × 0.64 = $12.42
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $19.40 ÷ $50.94 = 38.1% • Cash-out: $12.42 ÷ $50.94 = 24.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.60 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 69 | $16.03 | 16.40% | $2.63 | $10.52 | 57.2% |
| Black White Rare(BWR) | 2 | $446.63 | 0.20% | $0.89 | $3.56 | 19.3% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 7 | $68.18 | 1.25% | $0.85 | $3.40 | 18.5% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $0.57 | 21.10% | $0.12 | $0.48 | 2.6% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8 | $1.93 | 5.80% | $0.11 | $0.44 | 2.4% |
| Total | $4.60 | $18.40 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Black Bolt, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Victini - 171/086
#171/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$469.01
+$1.88 EV
Seismitoad - 105/086
#105/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$178.32
+$1.68 EV
Zekrom ex - 172/086
#172/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$424.24
+$1.68 EV
Zekrom ex - 166/086
#166/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$206.70
+$1.48 EV
Haxorus - 147/086
#147/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$54.42
+$0.52 EV
Kyurem ex - 165/086
#165/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$67.66
+$0.48 EV
N's Plan - 170/086
#170/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$60.32
+$0.44 EV
Krookodile - 137/086
#137/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$43.44
+$0.40 EV
Genesect ex
#067/086 · RR
1 in 28 packs
$0.80
+$0.12 EV
Zekrom ex - 158/086
#158/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$3.86
+$0.12 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 700 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Black-Bolt-and-White-Flare-Pull-Rates/bac92199-a2a7-4668-b4a4-2647a111776f/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-odds/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/07/20/black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-sets/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $29.99. Current sealed price ($50.94) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($50.94) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Bolt ETB | $118.37 | $43.22 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt PC ETB | $279.38 | $73.72 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Bundle | $64.40 | $27.60 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Binder Collection | $50.94 | $19.40 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | $31.37 | $14.55 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Poster Collection | $56.18 | $14.80 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Mini Tin | $19.30 | $9.20 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | $125.31 | $55.03 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | $10.21 | $4.60 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $32.55 | $15.22 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |