Black Bolt Binder Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $40.68.
4 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $24.36 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−63%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $65.04.
Expected Loss
−$40.68
The average opening result after paying $65.04 sealed.
Open Average
$24.36
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$15.59
Expected range $1.45-$10.23 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $5.84
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 700 pack openings.
$5.84 × 4 packs = $23.36
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$23.36 + $1.00 promos = $24.36
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$24.36 × 0.64 = $15.59
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $24.36 ÷ $65.04 = 37.5% • Cash-out: $15.59 ÷ $65.04 = 24.0%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $5.84 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 69 | $21.67 | 16.40% | $3.55 | $14.20 | 60.8% |
| Black White Rare(BWR) | 2 | $532.20 | 0.20% | $1.06 | $4.24 | 18.2% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 7 | $80.02 | 1.25% | $1.00 | $4.00 | 17.1% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $0.56 | 21.10% | $0.12 | $0.48 | 2.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8 | $1.96 | 5.80% | $0.11 | $0.44 | 1.9% |
| Total | $5.84 | $23.36 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Black Bolt, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Victini - 171/086
#171/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$554.58
+$2.20 EV
Zekrom ex - 172/086
#172/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$509.81
+$2.04 EV
Seismitoad - 105/086
#105/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$205.23
+$1.96 EV
Zekrom ex - 166/086
#166/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$254.81
+$1.84 EV
Haxorus - 147/086
#147/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$70.96
+$0.68 EV
Kyurem ex - 165/086
#165/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$79.04
+$0.56 EV
Dwebble - 129/086
#129/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$55.96
+$0.52 EV
N's Plan - 170/086
#170/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$64.27
+$0.44 EV
Zekrom ex - 158/086
#158/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$4.70
+$0.12 EV
N's Plan - 163/086
#163/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$3.85
+$0.12 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 700 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Black-Bolt-and-White-Flare-Pull-Rates/bac92199-a2a7-4668-b4a4-2647a111776f/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-odds/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/07/20/black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-sets/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $29.99. Current sealed price ($65.04) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($65.04) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Bolt ETB | $135.58 | $54.72 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt PC ETB | $299.34 | $91.25 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Bundle | $72.70 | $35.04 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Binder Collection | $65.04 | $24.36 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Poster Collection | $69.05 | $18.52 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | $66.65 | $31.20 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Mini Tin | $21.22 | $11.68 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | $14.04 | $5.84 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Knock Out [Suicune] | Multi-Set Products | $13.54 | $6.49 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Pokemon GO Collection | Pokemon GO | $38.26 | $18.08 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |