Surging Sparks ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $106.23.
9 packs plus $9.21 in promo value produce $30.09 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−78%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $136.32.
Expected Loss
−$106.23
The average opening result after paying $136.32 sealed.
Open Average
$30.09
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$19.26
Expected range $0.87-$3.77 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.32
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.32 × 9 packs = $20.88
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$20.88 + $9.21 promos = $30.09
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$30.09 × 0.64 = $19.26
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $30.09 ÷ $136.32 = 22.1% • Cash-out: $19.26 ÷ $136.32 = 14.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.32 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $81.80 | 1.15% | $0.94 | $8.46 | 40.5% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 23 | $9.37 | 7.70% | $0.72 | $6.48 | 31.0% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $3.94 | 6.70% | $0.26 | $2.34 | 11.2% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 18 | $1.24 | 16.70% | $0.21 | $1.89 | 9.1% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $22.97 | 0.53% | $0.12 | $1.08 | 5.2% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 8 | $1.34 | 5.00% | $0.07 | $0.63 | 3.0% |
| Total | $2.32 | $20.88 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Surging Sparks, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Pikachu ex - 238/191
#238/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$358.36
+$3.33 EV
Latias ex - 239/191
#239/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$194.45
+$1.80 EV
Milotic ex - 237/191
#237/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$142.60
+$1.35 EV
Latios - 203/191
#203/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$38.24
+$1.17 EV
Pikachu ex - 219/191
#219/191 · UR
1 in 313 packs
$34.52
+$0.99 EV
Pikachu ex - 247/191
#247/191 · HR
1 in 1132 packs
$97.43
+$0.81 EV
Ceruledge - 197/191
#197/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$24.53
+$0.72 EV
Latias ex - 076/191
#076/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$5.20
+$0.45 EV
Slakoth - 212/191
#212/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$13.85
+$0.45 EV
Pikachu ex - 057/191
#057/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$4.50
+$0.36 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Surging-Sparks-Pull-Rates, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-surging-sparks-booster-box). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($136.32) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($136.32) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($9.21) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Sparks Booster Box | $295.77 | $83.52 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks ETB | $136.32 | $30.09 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks PC ETB | $286.16 | $110.13 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Bundle | $62.20 | $13.92 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blister | $38.41 | $7.46 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister | $14.53 | $2.57 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box | $58.48 | $15.98 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster | $25.55 | $2.32 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Art Bundle | $35.61 | $9.28 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Pack | $7.98 | $2.32 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $301.22 | $155.15 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $708.93 | $356.79 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.90 | $91.76 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $181.03 | $79.10 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $176.10 | $75.03 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $169.67 | $71.55 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $463.87 | $194.89 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $280.14 | $116.17 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |