151 Ultra-Premium Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $827.08.
16 packs plus $10.00 in promo value produce $168.56 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−83%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $995.64.
Expected Loss
−$827.08
The average opening result after paying $995.64 sealed.
Open Average
$168.56
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$107.88
Expected range $5.20-$14.62 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $9.91
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.
$9.91 × 16 packs = $158.56
This product contains 16 booster packs.
$158.56 + $10.00 promos = $168.56
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$168.56 × 0.64 = $107.88
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $168.56 ÷ $995.64 = 16.9% • Cash-out: $107.88 ÷ $995.64 = 10.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $9.91 EV per pack for this 16-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/16pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 7 | $133.80 | 3.10% | $4.15 | $66.40 | 41.9% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 16 | $51.54 | 7.70% | $3.97 | $63.52 | 40.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 16 | $15.90 | 6.25% | $0.99 | $15.84 | 10.0% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 13 | $4.22 | 12.50% | $0.53 | $8.48 | 5.3% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 3 | $13.46 | 2.00% | $0.27 | $4.32 | 2.7% |
| Total | $9.91 | $158.56 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Pokemon 151, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard ex - 199/165
#199/165 · SIR
1 in 226 packs
$422.16
+$29.92 EV
Blastoise ex - 200/165
#200/165 · SIR
1 in 226 packs
$154.77
+$11.04 EV
Venusaur ex - 198/165
#198/165 · SIR
1 in 226 packs
$134.23
+$9.44 EV
Charmander - 168/165
#168/165 · IR
1 in 208 packs
$99.58
+$7.68 EV
Squirtle - 170/165
#170/165 · IR
1 in 208 packs
$98.41
+$7.52 EV
Bulbasaur - 166/165
#166/165 · IR
1 in 208 packs
$81.81
+$6.24 EV
Mew ex - 205/165 (151 Metal Card)
#205/165 · RR
1 in 104 packs
$25.57
+$4.00 EV
Mew ex - 205/165
#205/165 · HR
1 in 150 packs
$30.77
+$3.36 EV
Charizard ex - 183/165
#183/165 · UR
1 in 256 packs
$50.30
+$3.20 EV
Mew ex - 193/165
#193/165 · UR
1 in 256 packs
$44.25
+$2.72 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Scarlet-Violet-151-Pull-Rates/b237df74-fbb0-40d0-9e13-d69ee6e804d9/, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-151-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/15/scarlet-violet-151-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $119.99. Current sealed price ($995.64) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($995.64) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($10.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151 ETB | $639.91 | $113.91 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 PC ETB | $1360.15 | $417.68 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Booster Bundle | $190.01 | $59.46 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Poster Collection | $81.68 | $30.73 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Binder Collection | $211.74 | $40.64 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Ultra-Premium Collection | $995.64 | $168.56 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Alakazam ex Collection | $110.26 | $41.64 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Zapdos ex Collection | $115.81 | $41.64 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Mini Tin | $44.33 | $19.82 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Sam's Club Mini Tins Bundle | $214.75 | $81.28 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Booster Pack | $27.62 | $9.91 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | Black Bolt | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |